Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005
Mesoscale Discussion 166
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2005, 7:47 AM EST for 33 counties in New York; 9 counties in Pennsylvania; Grand Isle County, Vermont. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2005, 7:47 AM EST (12:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 16, 2005, 11:45 AM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 43 counties
Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Erie County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Cameron County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Warren County, PA, Grand Isle County, VT
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1156 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 228 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 286 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 161247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161247 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-161645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA/WRN THROUGH NERN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 161247Z - 161645Z ...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NY AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NERN NY THIS MORNING WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH... SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE NEAR BFD SWWD TO AGC/PKB WITH A WARM FRONT NEWD ACROSS SERN NY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER IN/IL APPROACHES THE AREA. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY AFTER 15Z. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS OCCURRING FROM GKJ/BUF...WITH 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OBSERVED AT BUF. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BANDING OF SNOW THIS MORNING. ISOLD LTG FROM THE NLDN AND IN THE DKK OBSERVATION SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF SNOW BANDS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BUF/ROC/IAG INDICATE PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE ISOTHERMAL WITH TIME WITH STRONG LIFT CONCENTRATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN NY...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL NY AND NRN VT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 02/16/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 45077376 44807532 43437887 42008026 41568022 41317865 41467717 43367453 44337339 44547324 44947328 45047348
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.