Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1020 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE BEGINNING OF
WORK WEEK AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS ERN NV CREATING TWO
AREAS OF CONCERN FOR UTAH TODAY/TONIGHT.  A RATHER BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL UTAH THIS MORNING ARE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO ERN UTAH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE ENDING LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EXTREME SW AS THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THIS CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TODAY...THOUGH
THE AFFECT ON ALREADY HIGH WATERWAYS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS THE INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED
VORTICITY MAX IN THE NRN END OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE NV.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MOISTURE WORKING NORTH FROM THE SRN
CONVECTION AND THE UPPER JET NOSING INTO CNTRL NV LATE IN THE DAY
COULD LEAD TO ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SEVERE
THREAT DOESNT LOOK ALL THAT HIGH AS 850-400MB SHEAR IS WEAK.
HOWEVER...THE SBCAPE OVER THE FAR NW DESERT/SALT FLATS DOES GET
FAIRLY HIGHS THIS EVENING. BASICALLY...IF ANY SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL PROBABLY STAY CLOSE TO THE VORTICITY
MAX AS IT TRACKS ACROSS FAR NW UT.

CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT IN VICINITY TO THE UPPER JET OVER FAR NRN UT
WILL OFFER UP A THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AGAIN SUNDAY.  THE
SRN/CNTRL MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...
THOUGH RISING HEIGHTS MAY SIGNAL MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LATER IN
THE DAY.

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK...NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...NONE...SEE SLCTAFSLC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

CONGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
500 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005

UTZ012>021-121300-
CASTLE COUNTRY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL-SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-
500 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE RAPID RISES TO AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME VERY WARM TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.

UTZ001>011-WYZ021-121300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-
SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
500 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...
GUSTY WIND AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BUT DECREASE
IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
TUESDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND BY MID WEEK.

AOT