Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

.SHORT TERM...ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNINGS MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS
WAS WORKED AIRMASS IS RECOVERING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SNEAKS
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND UP THE RIO
GRANDE THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. DRYLINE IS ALSO SHARPENING UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS LOCATED FROM NEAR SNYDER TO SANDERSON. ALSO
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING TEXAS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP TO
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY APPEARS  TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF AN ABILENE TO SAN
ANGELO TO SONORA LINE. CURRENTLY BEST CONVERGENCE ONGOING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF OLD OUT FLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DRYLINE NEAR SONORA
AND RADAR HAS INDICATED SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP THERE. VISUAL
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE OFFICE HERE INDICATE THAT CU IS FATTENING
WITH A FEW TOWERS. BOTH THE NAM AND RUC SHOW CAP TOTALLY ERODED BY
19Z AND CAPES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. SHEAR VALUES
HAVE WEAKENED FROM LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN.
THUS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL STORMS REMAIN. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL ONLY CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE EAST AFTER 00Z. DRIER IS NOT GOING
TO PUSH AS FAR EAST AS WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY. NONE THE LESS
COLUMN AS A WHOLE DRIER ON MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES COOL JUST
A TAD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AGAIN
WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY LINE ACTIVITY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO COME DOWN WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS OF SATURDAY NOW. THUS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALSO WENT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      61  89  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO   60  92  64  91 /  10   0   0   0
JUNCTION     60  91  64  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

27/BRAZZELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-091634-
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN-
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A HASKELL...SWEETWATER...MERTZON...OZONA
LINE. THE AIRMASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF WEST
TEXAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

TXZ168-081945-

MENARD TX-
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR MENARD
COUNTY...

AT 147 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MENARD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  MENARD
AT 240 PM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

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