Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WILL SEE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. GETTING HAIL REPORTS UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WILL
LIKELY SEE CONTINUED STORMS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD REGION. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...DUE TO TRAINING.
MAIN NEGATIVES TOWARD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LOW ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL. 850 MB FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THERE ALSO LATER TODAY.
WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIGHT NOW...BUT MAY RECONSIDER
IN A COUPLE HOURS IF TRAINING CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. SHOULD SEE A NICE TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS NORTH
OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND MOISTURE STARVED TO THE SOUTH. WILL
NOT PUT ANY POPS IN YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      46  36  61  40 /  90  70  10   0
SAN ANGELO   56  39  65  37 /  70  30  10   0
JUNCTION     62  41  66  34 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL COUNTIES UNTIL 8 AM.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
214 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-262013-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
214 PM CST FRI MAR 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS STALLED
FROM SONORA TO JUNCTION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK
BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT COMES
BACK TO THE NORTH...WARM MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ARE THIS EVENING. ALL THIS COMBINED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUPER CELLS. AT THIS TIME A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EAST OF A LINE FROM JUNCTION TO SAN ANGELO TO
ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
POSSIBILITY THAT A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHERE THE
WINDS ARE STILL BACKED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE FROM JUNCTION TO SAN
SABA. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 5 AND 11 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
AN MESOSCALE COMPLEX AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE METROPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ON SATURDAY...VERY COLD AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING EAST OF A JUNCTION TO
SAN ANGELO...ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON LINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
147 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     HAIL             ROBERT LEE              31.89N 100.48W
03/26/2005  1.00 INCH        COKE               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
244 AM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     HAIL             GRAPE CREEK             31.58N 100.55W
03/26/2005  0.88 INCH        TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

14