Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
302 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING
SHORTWAVE CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER CONVECTION
LEFT A DONUT ON STABILIZED AIR FROM SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION...WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE PERIPHERY. AIR WITHIN THE DONUT HAS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE SINCE 18Z AS THE AREA SEES BETTER SUNSHINE AND
HEATING...SO EXPECT THE AREA WITHIN THE DONUT TO SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...CHANCE POPS ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH DOES NOT REALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA...AT LEAST NOT
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE OFF. BEST RAIN CHANCES
PROBABLY COME IN MONDAY...AS EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE GULF MOVES
NORTHWEST INTO TEXAS. NEXT BIG QUESTION IF RAIN CHANCES WITH A
POSSIBLE FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK. FRONTS THIS DEEP INTO TEXAS THIS
LATE INTO JULY ARE ALWAYS A BIG QUESTION...AND WILL NOT RUN WITH
IT TOO MUCH. STILL...WILL CONTINUE THE POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AND
HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES WITH SOME CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      74  95  75  94 /  30  10  10  20
SAN ANGELO   73  95  74  92 /  30  20  20  20
JUNCTION     73  93  74  90 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

TXZ139-140-154-155-170-232000-
BROWN TX-COLEMAN TX-MASON TX-MCCULLOCH TX-SAN SABA TX-
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...

NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL AFFECT SAN SABA COUNTY BETWEEN 100 PM AND 300 PM. OTHER SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MCCULLOCH...SOUTHERN BROWN...AND SOUTHERN COLEMAN COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO MASON COUNTY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH 300 PM...AND SOME LOCATIONS
COULD RECEIVE UP TO THREE INCHES. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE PLACES.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. A
FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IF THE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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