Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1039 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM
FOR ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY. FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1025 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005)

UPDATE...
LATE THIS EVENING A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF COLD FRONT...IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO HASKELL
AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING TO
THE WEST AND NOW EXTEND TO NEAR THE TOWN OF HASKELL. DESPITE THE
STORMS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THEY ARE MOVING DOWN INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS...
AND THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH. STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PROGRESSES. BEST ESTIMATE
AT THIS TIME IS TO BRING THE FRONT A LITTLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT THROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE FIELDS ON
THE NAM INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.
A GREATER PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT AS WARM ON TUESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS...FORECAST UPDATE WILL
BE SENT SHORTLY TO ADJUST WINDS...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 11 PM. UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANOTHER
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT
AFTER 11 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WATCH EXPIRATION OR CONTINUATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 442 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005)

UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATE HAS JUST BEEN SENT FOR NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL
OF THE BIG COUNTRY. POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO ADDED.
ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY RESULTING IN TOWERING CUMULUS...WITH A FEW RADAR
ECHOES DEVELOPING. SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1149 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005)

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRYLINE IS DRIFTING
EAST...BULGING THROUGH LBB AND THEN ANGLING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
JUST EAST OF MIDLAND. STRATUS ONCE AGAIN HAD TROUBLE DISSIPATING
AND IS JUST NOW LEAVING THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.

AS UPPER AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT PER THE LATEST RUC...COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WASH OUT AROUND INTERSTATE 20 EARLY TOMORROW...PER GFS.
CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE FEATURE...PREFER
THIS SOLUTION OVER ETA WHICH PUSHES COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THIS AREA. GFS IS SUGGESTING AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW EVENING. CORRELATING THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS PROGD UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AND
GIVEN THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD HAVE
LIFTED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
HANDLE THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. IF WE DO HAVE THE FORMATION OF AN
MCS OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY AND OUT OF THE HEARTLAND BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
THE CAVEAT THAT DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DISTURBANCE OR TWO
DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1 AM FOR ALL OF THE BIG
COUNTRY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
212 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-141912-
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN-
212 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

23/HUBER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1037 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

TXZ049-054-098-099-113-114-127-128-140600-
CALLAHAN TX-FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-JONES TX-NOLAN TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
1037 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477 WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 1 AM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

CALLAHAN...FISHER...HASKELL...JONES...NOLAN...SHACKELFORD...TAYLOR...
AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES.

A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH...A FEW STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 20 INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

TXZ049-054-098-099-113-114-127-128-140600-
CALLAHAN TX-FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-JONES TX-NOLAN TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE BIG COUNTRY UNTIL 100 AM...

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM
THROCKMORTON TO HAMLIN AT 1240 AM...WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 20 TO 25
MPH AND WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS JONES AND SHACKELFORD COUNTIES
THROUGH 1 AM. STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST INTO FISHER
COUNTY. THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE ABILENE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER 1 AM.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG A GUST FRONT WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SHACKELFORD AND JONES COUNTIES INTO TAYLOR
AND CALLAHAN COUNTIES.

STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON THESE STORMS.