Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

.UPDATE...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE A FEW OF THE BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES
FROM THE TORNADO WATCH AND ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005)

UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BIG COUNTY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY. LATEST MODEL AND SPC DATA INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SPC...HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 200 AM TOMORROW
MORNING FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS...UPDATED GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS NEW WATCH AND ADJUST FIRST PERIOD POPS AND SKY
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005)

SHORT TERM...
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 1 WITH MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. WILL NEED SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BECOMING UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER.

FIRST...MAY SEE SOME EARLY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN UNSTABLE AIR...PERHAPS ALONG TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.

SECOND...EXPECT MCS (A COMPLEX OF STORMS) CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING IN TX PANHANDLE...TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...AS A SQUALL LINE
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS FEEDING THE MCS IN THE LOW LEVELS. MIDLAND RADAR LOOP
INDICATED A POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE REGION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
MIDLAND...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THEIR NORTH. SPC HAS
SENT OUT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089...WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
WILL HAVE SEVERE MENTION IN ZONES TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN MCS TONIGHT. ON THE LINE BETWEEN
ISSUANCE/NON ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AREAS SOUTH OF A BIG
LAKE...SAN ANGELO...BROWNWOOD LINE HAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
LAST WEEK (LOCALLY SOME AREAS 5-6)...AND ARE STILL MOIST. BIG
COUNTRY HAD MUCH LESS. GIVEN THE SPEED OF MCS OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS
IN THE 30 MPH RANGE AND THUS LIMITED TIME OF RAINFALL
DURATION...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...HOWEVER WILL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES. LOOKING FOR A LOT OF
AREAS TO SEE .25 TO .50 WITH ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCHES.

LONG TERM...
MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN
SECTION MID MORNING TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRYLINE REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR THESE BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES UNTIL
200 AM CDT THIS MORNING.

SHACKELFORD...TAYLOR...CALLAHAN

FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALL BUT CROCKETT
COUNTY AND IRION COUNTY REMAIN IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 200 AM CDT
THIS MORNING.

&&

23/HUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-011626-
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN-
1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
...WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG SEVERAL LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS
STORMS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
QUICKLY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SUFFICIENT WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN TRACK ALONG
ONE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR AN EXTENDED LENGTH OF TIME.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
NEAR THE TEXAS NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...REACHING WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL STABILIZES THE AIR MASS
SOMEWHAT...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...FOCUSING AGAIN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1209 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     MILES                   31.60N 100.18W
06/01/2005  70 MPH           RUNNELS            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TRAINED STORM SPOTTER ESTIMATED HIGH WINDS IN MILES.

&&

JBRAZZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             7 N FORT MCKAVETT       30.93N 100.11W
06/01/2005  1.25 INCH        MENARD             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1241 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HAIL             ROBERT LEE              31.89N 100.48W
05/31/2005  4.25 INCH        COKE               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO PATROL VEHICLE

&&

CW

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