Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING UP THROUGH BIG BEND THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF IT. RUC MUCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG AND DEW POINTS
IN UPPER 60S...SO LOTS OF INSTABILITY. MOST OF CONVECTION JUST
WEST OF CWA...FROM ALPINE AND FORT STOCKTON...NORTHWARD TO MIDLAND
AND LUBBOCK...TRAINING NORTHEAST. WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
THIS IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING IN SOME RESPECTS...GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE.

BOTH GFS AND NAM MODELS JUST GRAZE WESTERN CWA CURRENTLY OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN TO LUBBOCK...WITH PERMIAN BASIN MCS. THEY ALSO HINT
AT MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SECONDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
INDICATING UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES NEAR SONORA BY 7 AM THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED YET...BUT STILL HAVE THE MONITOR POTENTIAL
AS BOTH MODELS BRING STRONG 700 HT UVVS ACROSS CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

WITH STRONG INSTABILILTY...WILL MENTION SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ZONES FOR THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS TRAINING
POTENTIAL...AS CURRENT STORMS IN PERMIAN BASIN ATTEST. HEAVIEST
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL APPEARS TO GRAZE
CROCKETT...IRION...STERLING...NOLAN...FISHER AND HASKELL COUNTIES.
LIFT FROM  SHORTWAVE EXITS CWA BY NOON. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND
COUNTIES...HOWEVER...WITH OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LEFT OUT RAIN MENTION IN AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO VALLEY AND AREAS
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER CWA. MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS ALL NEXT
WEEK...WITH WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW LOFT. LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE      84  68  94  68 /  70  20  20  30
SAN ANGELO   87  69  94  69 /  60  10  20  40
JUNCTION     87  68  90  68 /  50  20  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TORNADO WATCH FOR
CROCKETT...SCHLEICHER...SUTTON...IRION...AND STERLING COUNTIES
UNTIL 4 AM.

&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
318 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-032018-
BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-
JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN-
318 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT.
THIS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CAP SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 AND 7 IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. WITH A THUNDERSTORM CAN ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE AREA TO WATCH
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OZONA TO SAN
ANGELO TO ABILENE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING TOMORROW MORNING.
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. THESE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SEVERITY AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. IF
THESE MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH...OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL AND WIND PRODUCERS WITH SOMEWHAT LESS THREAT
OF A TORNADO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BRAZZELL