Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Shreveport, LA

000 
WWUS54 KSHV 270138
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

TXC459-270147-
/O.CAN.KSHV.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-050327T0145Z/
UPSHUR TX-
737 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR UPSHUR COUNTY IS CANCELED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING...HAS WEAKENED AND 
MOVED OUT OF UPSHUR COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3287 9471 3279 9472 3278 9471 3275 9471
      3267 9480 3267 9482 3279 9495 3290 9482
      3290 9473

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE NM AT
18Z...WITH A HEALTHY BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT IN
CENTRAL TEXAS.  SURFACE OBS SHOW STATIONARY FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE
FROM 12Z THIS MORNING...PERHAPS SINKING S OF KLFK IN THE WEST...AND
RETREATING TO NEAR KMLU IN THE EAST.  18Z KSHV SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN
HAS MOISTENED UP QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST 6 HRS...AND BOTH THE
ETA/AVN INITIALIZED ABOUT 5F TOO WET ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
STILL...18Z PATTERNS MATCH SURFACE ANALYSES.

THAT BEING SAID...MODEL PROGS INDICATE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT...WHERE SBCAPES OF
1000-2000+ J/KG ARE PROGGED BY 00Z.  LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES
CAPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG NEAR KAEX.  GIVEN
CURRENT ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FRONT...WILL LIMIT SEVERE WX IN THE
GRIDS TO NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT.
BY 12Z...1000+ J/KG CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
THE CORE OVER THE SE OK.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/TRIPLE POINT SHOULD
BE THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES THEN BY THEN...AND WILL RAMP THINGS
DOWN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE CORE FOR EASTER SUNDAY.  FOR
TEMPS...MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
TROUGH...AND STAYING NEAR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
REASONABLE.  EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL SPREAD SUNDAY DUE TO WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER.

OTHERWISE...A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS STILL
ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED IT/S ARRIVAL
TO MORE LIKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON RATHER THAN MORNING.  WILL SHIFTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...BOTH MODELS
INDICATE FROPA COULD BE BREEZY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  56  43  71 /  80  40  10   0
MLU  53  58  43  69 /  80  40  10   0
DEQ  47  50  36  71 /  80  40  10   0
TXK  47  54  41  70 /  80  40  10   0
ELD  49  54  41  69 /  80  40  10   0
TYR  46  52  41  70 /  80  40  10   0
GGG  46  55  41  72 /  80  30  10   0
LFK  48  54  41  72 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

08/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF I20.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY NEAR A
MONROE LOUISIANA...LUFKIN TEXAS LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AREAS SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINE WITH DEEP LOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.  A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TODAY...
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES.  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CITIZENS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS WITH THIS ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

LAZ005-010>014-017>022-270100-
BIENVILLE-CALDWELL-DE SOTO-GRANT-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LINCOLN-
NATCHITOCHES-OUACHITA-RED RIVER LA-SABINE LA-WINN-
630 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 88 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR PARTS OF
NORTH LOUISIANA...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 88 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE
FOLLOWING PARISHES...

BIENVILLE...CALDWELL...DE SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...
LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE...AND
WINN.