Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
306 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS NE TX AND SE
OK...OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...THAT WAS LOCATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CAPE
IS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...AND WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
OVER 300 AND THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VERY
VIGOROUS STORM SYTEM IN THE PLAINS...WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE
INTO A LINE EARLY ON AND PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN
THE LINE OR JUST AHEAD OF IT. CELLS IN THE LINE HAVE ALREADY SHOWN
ROTATION AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE.

WITH THE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT...AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WILL
CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE AREA.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY...THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LEAVING THE AREA IN A DRY. THE AREA REMAINS
DRY...THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT AROUND
THURSDAY/FRIDAY COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT
POPS FOR THIS. FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  65  38  59 /  70   0   0   0
MLU  54  65  38  59 /  70  10   0   0
DEQ  46  62  30  58 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  50  64  36  57 /  60   0   0   0
ELD  50  64  35  55 /  70  10   0   0
TYR  47  64  35  60 /  30   0   0   0
GGG  47  65  35  60 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  48  67  35  62 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA
     SALLE...LINCOLN...NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED
     RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND MCCURTAIN.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG
     ...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...SMITH...
     TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-281200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY...JUST AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.  MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...THAT WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.  THE
SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TORNADOES.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-272200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1045 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SUCH THAT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN
EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY...LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR AFTER 300 PM.

AFTER SUNSET...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT A LINEAR LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE.

THE THREAT AREA IS PARTICULARLY SERIOUS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOU LOCAL RADIO STATION OR
CABLE SUBSCRIBER FOR FURTHER INFORMATION RELATING TO THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.