Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
251 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHERN ZONES...PROVIDING CWA WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO EAST...BUT
NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST QPF EAST WEST ACROSS CENTER OF CWA.
FOR SUNDAY...LONG WAVE TROF IS FCST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. HURRICANE KATRINA WILL STILL BE IN
NORTHCENTRAL GULF...SO CWA LOOKS TO BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LOOK FOR WIND AND
CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN FROM TROPICAL
SYSTEM POSSIBLY REACHING EASTERN MOST ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PERCENT EAST...BUT EXPECT THERE
WILL BE A SHARP LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND NO RAIN. STRONG WINDS
HOWEVER WILL AFFECT ALL OF CWA. WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LOW IN KATRINA WHEN IT MOVES INLAND...WIND GUSTS COULD
EASILY REACH 35 MPH IN EASTERN HALF OF CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECAST
DEPENDING ON ACTUAL TRACK.

DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW THROUGH REMAINDER OF
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  97  76  93 /  40  20  10  20
MLU  75  93  75  86 /  40  20  20  50
DEQ  73  96  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
TXK  76  97  76  92 /  20  20  10  20
ELD  74  96  74  89 /  30  20  10  40
TYR  76  98  75  94 /  30  20  10  20
GGG  75  97  74  93 /  30  20  10  20
LFK  74  99  74  94 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-281100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER.
THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AFTER 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING...ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND
STORM SPOTTERS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

03