Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FCST UPCOMING FIRST HEADLINED BY THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IN SOME
AREAS HOPEFULLY FOLLOWED BY SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK.

CU FIELD HAS BEEN GRADUALLY COMING NORTH ALL DAY ACROSS SE TX AND CENTRAL
LA WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DOWN SOUTH TONIGHT AND HAVE WORDED THIS EVENING VARIETY ONLY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED BUT
SHOULD REGENERATE OVERNIGHT AND INCH SLOWLY EASTWARD TO PERHAPS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING...THUS LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST.

TEMPS THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LACK OF
RAINFALL HAS FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH US IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT.
SHV ACTING AS A HEAT ISLAND THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 99 YESTERDAY AND
NEARING 100 DEGREES ALREADY TODAY. WILL GO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BUT INCLUDE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER
CITY IN THIS AND ADD HEAT INDEX HEADLINES OF NEAR 105 DEGREES. IF IT WERE
NOT FOR THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY...AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WOULD HAVE BEEN NEEDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS BUT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS IN THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND ANY LONGER THAN THURSDAY.
THIS MCS SHOULD GET GOING TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MARCH STEADILY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM TO BE EDGING INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THUS THE HIGH POPS NORTH OF A TXK...ELD LINE. DECIDED TO GO CONSERVATIVE
IN THE PRECIP DEPT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE REGION AS A SSE DRIFT TO THE PARENT MCV WILL PROBABLY KEEP THIS REGION
DRY AND HOT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE ALL THIS BUT CANNOT FCST THIS
SCENARIO BEYOND 36HRS OUT. WE SHOULD STAY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL WITH THE NAM INDICATING PERHAPS A MCS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST INTO OKLAHOMA AND FOLLOWING THE LEAD SYSTEM...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FOR FRIDAY AND WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS
MAKE A BETTER DETERMINATION IF AN WHEN THIS MATERIALIZES.

REALLY NEEDING THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SHV IS NOW NEARLY 10 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  99  73  89 /   0  20  40  40
MLU  72  95  70  84 /   0  20  50  50
DEQ  67  92  67  84 /  20  60  60  50
TXK  68  95  68  85 /   0  30  60  50
ELD  68  94  68  83 /   0  30  60  50
TYR  73  94  73  94 /   0  20  20  20
GGG  73  96  73  93 /   0  20  20  20
LFK  73  98  73  95 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD NOT
BE ORGANIZED...OR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. IF THESE STORMS
MATERIALIZE LATE TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THOSE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.