Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Shreveport, LA

000 
WWUS54 KSHV 140115
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
715 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

TXC347-140130-
/O.CON.KSHV.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050214T0130Z/
NACOGDOCHES TX-
715 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 730 PM CST FOR
NACOGDOCHES COUNTY...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...STORM SPOTTERS...AND LOCAL MEDIA HAVE 
REPORTED HAIL RANGING FROM PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE IN AND NEAR THE 
CITY OF NACOGDOCHES. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL CONTINUES OVER THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF NACOGDOCHES COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM CST. 
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE EXTREME 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...AND THESE COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL. 
ALL OF THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3169 9471 3170 9462 3170 9448 3172 9446
      3172 9442 3164 9440 3156 9431 3152 9431
      3152 9471

$$

000 
WUUS54 KSHV 132210
SVRSHV
LAC027-132245-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0001.050313T2210Z-050313T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 407 PM CST...SHREVEPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF ATHENS...OR ABOUT 14
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOMER...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
UNTIL 445 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3277 9304 3259 9307 3259 9288 3279 9282

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS MOVING QUICKLY EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE
EAST WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WITH THE DRY SLOT ACROSS
SE TX/SW LA. WITH THIS SECONDARY AREAS TRAJECTORY MORE EAST NORTHEAST...
BELIEVE IT WILL LIKELY CLIP OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING.
OF GREATER INTEREST IS THE GROWING CU FIELD ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD
OF AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO
THE 70S ACROSS NE TX/SE OK WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE MIXED DOWN SOMEWHAT. LAPSE ANALYSIS REVEALING CAPE
IN THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG WITH LIS OF -2 TO -4 ACROSS THIS REGION
AS WELL. CU RATHER FLAT ATTM BUT ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING
COULD SET SOME OF THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE OFF. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AS TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOWERING WET BULB ZERO VALUES...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS LATE COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE EXTREME WEST AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. WILL MAKE THE CALL
WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES UNTIL NEAR
ISSUANCE TIME GIVING THE STORMS UNTIL THE VERY LAST MINUTE TO POP.
THE EAST MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT SO KEPT CLOUDS IN ALL NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT JUST MAKING PROGRESS INTO OUR NORTHWEST HALF BY 12Z MON.

FRONT PUSHES ON THREW MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC RIDGE CLOSELY ON
ITS HEELS. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY WITH
70S ON MONDAY AND TEMPS PUSHING 80 DEGREES WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST TO WORK WITH. HAVE
CONTINUED LOW POP ADVERTISEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THIS FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND RETURN
BY LATE WEEK. LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING WET ONCE AGAIN WITH
A POSSIBLE REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. THIS ONE
IS LOOKING QUITE A BIT WETTER HOWEVER BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO DISSECT THIS ONE THIS WEEK.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  75  47  77 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  54  73  46  76 /  50   0   0   0
DEQ  44  74  41  76 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  48  74  46  76 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  50  73  44  74 /  50   0   0   0
TYR  48  77  50  78 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  48  76  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  52  77  49  79 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WHICH IS
LEADING TO DESTABILIZATION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IF THEY DEVELOP WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN
THE AFTERNOON WOULD LOSE THEIR INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

13