Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WWUS56 KSGX 301944
SVSSGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1243 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

CAC065-073-301953-
/O.EXP.KSGX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-050730T1945Z/
RIVERSIDE CA-SAN DIEGO CA-
1243 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SAN DIEGO AND
WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 1245 PM PDT...

LAT...LON 3330 11689 3313 11660 3320 11648 3354 11626
      3389 11662 3397 11687 3349 11706

$$

MACKECHNIE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WARM...HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE BRINGING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DRIFT WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW
WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRIMED FOR ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.62 INCHES AND EVEN MORE CAPE THAN
YESTERDAYS SOUNDING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING EVEN HIGHER PWS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED YESTERDAY EVENING FOR
TODAY LOOKS ON TARGET. HEAVY RAIN RATES OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL PRODUCE MORE FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AS CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WILL
MOVE INTO SOCAL. THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TRIGGER MORE
FLOOD PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERLY WINDS
ALOFT COULD ALSO PUSH SOME OF THE STORMS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE INLAND VALLEYS.

.LONG RANGE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE DRYER AIR ALOFT FOR THE
MIDDLE ON THE WEEK...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR PATTERN TO FRI OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT DESERTS...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN...MAINLY FROM 19Z-02Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO 50000 FT WITH HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND
LOCAL WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH.

MARINE LAYER TO REMAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED NEAR THE COAST...WITH NO
LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING ORANGE COUNTY. MIGHT STILL SEE PATCHY STRATUS
LINGER NEAR BEACHES OF SOUTH SAN DIEGO CO TIL EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE
EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO RETURN TO SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR CRQ/SAN AROUND
09-16Z SUN. BASES AROUND 800-1000 FT MSL AND TOPS ABT 1400 FT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY FROM 11 AM
UNTIL 7 PM...SEE LAXFFASGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS...SEE
LAXHWOSGX.

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION...LAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1030 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

CAZ055-056-058-060-061-062-302300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
1030 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING SUNDAY. MORE MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS...THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
HAS BEEN REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA TODAY.

CAZ048-050-302300-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
1030 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NOTE...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW INCORPORATES THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX THAT WAS ISSUED SEPARATELY IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IF IT EXCEEDS THE LOW CATEGORY IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED DAILY AT 4 AM AND 4 PM OR AS
NEEDED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30.

MOEDE/PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1121 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     HAIL             3 W ANZA                33.56N 116.73W
07/30/2005  0.50 INCH        RIVERSIDE          CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MARBLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT SR371 AT CAREY RD.

&&

SCV