Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHERN BAJA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES
IN THE SOUTH PART. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOCAL BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOST OF THE NORTH PART. THE
MAIN ACTIVITY IS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFFSHORE. VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN THE FORECAST
CHARTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHERN BAJA BY SAT MORNING BUT
IT COULD BE THERE A BIT EARLY. THE LOW IS MOVING ALONG THE EXPECTED
PATH. IT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN BAJA EARLY SAT MORNING. TWO AREAS OF
SHOWERS WERE MOVING AROUND THE LOW CURRENTLY. ONE AREA NEAR THE LOW
WAS MOVING THROUGH SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE OTHER BAND WAS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR NORTH PART
LIKE THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OCCASIONALLY.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. WITH
THE LOW NEAR THE AREA SAT IT SHOULD BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...ROTATING AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TYPE WEATHER AS A TORNADO OR LAND
SPOUT WILL BE IN THE BIG PICTURE SAT. LIFTED INDEX THIS AFTERNOON
WAS -3.3 AT NKX AND EXPECT IT TO BE MORE UNSTABLE SAT. SHOULD BE
RATHER ACTIVE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ACTION WILL DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET WITH SOME SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND
MAYBE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART THROUGH SUN MORNING. RIDGE SHOVES INTO
NORCAL SUN AND SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK WITH EVER INCREASING
HEIGHTS OVER SOCAL. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY BUT WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. SOME OCCASIONAL LOCAL BREEZES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT IT...BUT THE OFFSHORE LASTS THROUGH FRI.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOES...SEE
LAXSPSSGX.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW HODGES DAM FOR...SEE LAXFLSSGX.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SUN...SEE LAXCFWSGX.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...SEE LAXSRFSGX.

&&

WHITLOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
600 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-051400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
600 AM PST FRI MAR 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LARGE WEST SWELL WILL CAUSE LARGE SURF AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SEE LAXCFWSGX FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LARGE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE LARGE SURF AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND MAY HAVE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED.

ATKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
646 PM PST FRI MAR 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     HAIL             RANCHO CUCAMONGA        34.12N 117.57W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0154 PM     HAIL             RANCHO CUCAMONGA        34.12N 117.57W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0209 PM     HAIL             FOUNTAIN VALLEY         33.71N 117.95W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        ORANGE             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0520 PM     HAIL             PALM DESERT             33.73N 116.38W
03/04/2005  0.25 INCH        RIVERSIDE          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BND