Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 PM PST SAT FEB 25 2005

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

UPDATED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SHORT TERM...CUMULUS WASTED NO TIME BUILDING TODAY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHILE THE MARINE STRATUS LAYER WAS SLOW TO CLEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WERE NOTED BY 125 PM.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BASED ON THE
MODELS...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING OVER THE MTNS...AND PERHAPS THE
FOOTHILLS...VALLEYS...AND DESERTS.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING.

AFTER THE ACTIVITY TODAY WINDS DOWN...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH SHOULD REESTABLISH THE
MARINE STRATUS LAYER W OF THE MTNS. BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
HELP TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW AROUND...MAINLY IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS.
AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP US DRY
THROUGH SUN. THERE IS ANOTHER MAJOR STORM LOCATED NEAR 45N/145W
WHICH WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND N CA BY SUN. THE TRAILING S END OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO SOCAL
BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE.

THE STORM TRACK DOES APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH. MODELS GENERALLY CONCUR ON THIS SOLUTION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS IN THE NEAR TERM. THE EUROPEAN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RAIN HERE MONDAY...FROM
THE STORM OVER THE E PACIFIC NOW...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM MODELS
LOOKS DRY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE WINTER...AND THE
EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE COME OUT THE CLEAR WINNERS. HAVE DECIDED TO
LEAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE ZONE FORECASTS EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED
ON THESE MODELS.

THE FLOOD WARNING BELOW HODGES DAM WILL BE REPLACED WITH A SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY. THE SPILLAGE IS SLOWLY DECREASING AND ANY
IMPACT DOWNSTREAM SHOULD BE LESSENING WITH TIME.

.LONG TERM...CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRINGS A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR...
DRY...AND WARM WEATHER BEGINNING WED...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW HODGES DAM...
SEE LAXFLSSGX.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 900 PM
TONIGHT...SEE LAXFFASGX.

&&

JAD/ATKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 PM PST FRI FEB 25 2005

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-261400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
400 AM PST FRI FEB 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
COASTAL ZONES AND COACHELLA VALLEY..

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THE SAN DIEGUITO RIVER BELOW
HODGES DAM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS, AND THE
INLAND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO....RIVERSIDE...AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING AND MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PURPURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
235 PM PST FRI FEB 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             HIGHLAND                34.12N 117.19W
02/25/2005  0.50 INCH        SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEANUT-SIZE HAIL

&&

BND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
337 PM PST FRI FEB 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             CUYAMACA PEAK           32.95N 116.61W
02/25/2005  0.25 INCH        SAN DIEGO          CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BND