Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
830 PM PST FRI JAN 28 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS COLD UNSTABLE AIR
FILTERS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME SNOW WILL FALL ON THE
HIGHER PEAKS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WARMING WILL BE LIMITED AS THE UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER ARIZONA...THEN WORKS BACK TO THE WEST. SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND
PASSES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE STEADY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ARE NOW EXITING TO THE EAST. MEDIA AND OTHER USERS PLEASE
NOTE...AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF CHAFF HAS BEEN AFFECTING RADAR RETURNS
THIS EVENING...MOSTLY OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN POPPING UP OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR FROM THE NORTHERN DESERTS
THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND SPREADING SE. MOST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WERE UNDER ONE HALF INCH EXCEPT ON THE
COASTAL SLOPES WHERE UP TO ONE INCH WAS REPORTED. THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS WELL DEFINED VORT MAX DROPPING S OFF THE COAST NEAR PT.
CONCEPTION. ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT WAVE EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SW OFF POINT CONCEPTION...AND AS FAR S
AS RIVERSIDE COUNTY. THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED IN THE
RAIN AND WAS WET UP THROUGH 10K FT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS
FILTERING IN NOW.

MODELS SWING VIGOROUS VORT MAX THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SAT. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...THIS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST AREAS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -6
ALONG THE COAST SUPPORT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
VERY LITTLE THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO
AROUND 5K FT IN THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ETA MODEL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTION
THROUGH LINDBERGH SHOWS A STEEP DROP OFF IN LAYER RH DURING THE DAY
SAT...SO THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR DRYING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BUT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
OCCUR IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR LAS VEGAS SAT...DRIFTS
SE THROUGH AZ ON SUN...THEN RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ON MON AND
TUE. INITIALLY THIS SHOULD JUST BRING DRY...OFFSHORE...COOL
CONDITIONS...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WHICH GRADUALLY OPENS THE DOOR TO MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BACKING IN FROM THE E BY THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS NOT INDICATED.

ZONES WERE UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM SATURDAY...SEE LAXCFWSGX.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SEE LAXSRFSGX.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

&&

JAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST FRI JAN 28 2005

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-291400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
300 AM PST FRI JAN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LARGE SWELL WILL BRING INCREASING SURF WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COASTS INTO SATURDAY. SEE LAXCFWSGX AND LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. SEE
LAXSPSSGX FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 600 PM SATURDAY.

THE PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AT TIME SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MAXWELL