Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 152349
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
445 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

CAC071-160100-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
450 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 450 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH OF BARSTOW. THE 
RAIN HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY BUT RUNOFF FROM THE STORMS 
OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING OVER 
THE WARNED AREA.


LAT...LON 3460 11729 3451 11708 3477 11692 3479 11730

$$

PURPURA

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 160056
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
556 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

CAC071-160110-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
556 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 600 PM PDT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 500 PM. 
THEREFORE...NO NEW FLOODING IS EXPECTED. PONDING OF WATER COULD 
CONTINUE IN LOW-LYING AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.

LAT...LON 3460 11729 3451 11708 3477 11692 3479 11730

$$

MAXWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SBD COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE DIED OUT
AS DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PT
CONCEPTION. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE INTO ALL COASTAL AREAS AND MOST
INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN INVERSION
BASED NEAR 3200 FT WITH SE WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER 10000 FT AND
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL.
THE LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. SC REMAINS EXTENSIVE OFFSHORE.

DESPITE THE DRY SLOT MOVING OVER OUR AREA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING OFF OF THE SDB MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH
DESERTS WITH A SMALLER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN DESERTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WERE
THEY TRAIN OVER MOUNTAINS AREAS OR DRIFT INTO THE HI DESERTS.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUE...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TURN DRIER SW WED AND THU AS A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH REMAIN NEAR THE W COAST. HOWEVER...A LITTLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY START TO RETURN BY THU AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
JUST CAUSE CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PROBABLY NO THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS EXTENSIVE AND THERE WILL BE
A SLOW WARMING TREND IN MOST AREAS.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN THE EVENINGS AND INCREASING SOUTH SWELL
COULD CAUSE TIDAL OVERFLOW AND COASTAL EROSION WED THROUGH SAT.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE THE UPPER HI WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E
FRI THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CAUSE A DECREASING MARINE LAYER AND
WARMING TREND. IT COULD ALSO BRING BACK MONSOONAL MOISTURE. PROGS
CURRENTLY SHOW DRY FLOW OVER OUR AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 20Z CLOUD BASES OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SD
COUNTY RANGED FROM 2000 TO 2500 FEET WITH TOPS TO 3500 FEET. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH 01Z...THEN SURGE INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS REACHING ONT AND RNM AROUND 08Z. BURNOFF TIME
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THROUGH 04Z.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SEE LAXFFASGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HIGH TIDES AND SOUTH SWELL AFFECTING
THE COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEE LAXMWSSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...MOEDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

CAZ042-043-161100-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
400 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL AREAS IN EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LARGE SOUTH SWELL WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL SURF ALONG WITH STRONG AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TIDES OF OVER
7 FEET DURING THE EVENINGS...COMBINED WITH THE LARGER SURF...COULD
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ055-056-058-060-061-062-161100-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
400 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH FLASH FLOOD RATING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 PM. SEE LAXFFASGX FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MOSTLY IN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND IN THE HIGH DESERTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

NOTE...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW INCORPORATES THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX THAT WAS ISSUED SEPARATELY IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IF IT EXCEEDS THE LOW CATEGORY IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED DAILY AT 4 AM AND 4 PM OR AS
NEEDED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30.

MAXWELL