Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 091924
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1223 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2005

CAC071-092300-
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
1223 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM PDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 1220 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND REMOTE 
RAIN GAGES CONTINUED TO INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM WITH FLASH FLOOD 
PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE STORM WAS 6 MILES EAST OF 
FOREST FALLS AND NEARLY STATIONARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE 
DEVELOPING 3 MILES WEST OF BIG BEAR CITY. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FOREST FALLS 
...BIG BEAR LAKE...AND BIG BEAR CITY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND AREA ROADS.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3423 11664 3437 11706 3432 11732 3422 11736
      3414 11706 3401 11705 3400 11692 3404 11693
      3404 11664

$$

JAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2005

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...SLOWLY
DECREASING LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD
DRIFT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FOR A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE A FEW SMALL CHANGES. SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN NE FLOW THIS MORNING...MAINLY S THERE WERE ALSO AREAS OF
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. STRATUS REMAINS EXTENSIVE OFFSHORE. THE
12Z NKX SOUNDING WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW OF 1.91 INCHES.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 4 MB SAN-IPL.

THE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY SLOW DOWN THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION BUT
STILL EXPECT A VERY ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND A FEW COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS COULD DRIFT W OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS TODAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE CIRCULATION MAY CAUSE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ELY
COMPONENT OF THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN PW WED
THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER HI SLOWLY SHIFTS E. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLE
EDDY DEVELOPMENT AND WEAKER MONSOONAL FLOW. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL GET A SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY. MINOR TEMP CHANGES
EXPECT FOR SLIGHT LOCAL COOLING W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS CONTINUE THE MID LEVEL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND NONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD EXTEND INTO THE WRN VALLEYS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...ORANGE COUNTY WAS CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER SURGED INTO SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREAS BTWN
12-14Z WITH CLOUD BASES BTWN 700 AND 1000 FEET. CLEARING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 16Z AS MARINE LAYER RETREATS WEST.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE DESERTS THIS MORNING WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OF
SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA. SEE LAXFFASGX.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...MOEDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2005

CAZ055-056-058-062-092300-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
400 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 AM
UNTIL 800 PM TODAY. SEE LAXFFASGX FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY...HIGH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
IS SIGNIFICANT.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA STARTING AT NOON TODAY.

CAZ060-061-092300-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
400 AM PDT TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS
COACHELLA VALLEY
IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
1000 AM UNTIL 800 PM TODAY. SEE LAXFFASGX FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL RATING. THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA STARTING AT NOON TODAY.

NOTE...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW INCORPORATES THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX THAT WAS ISSUED SEPARATELY IN PREVIOUS YEARS.
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INDEX WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IF IT EXCEEDS THE LOW CATEGORY IN THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED DAILY AT 4 AM AND 4 PM OR AS
NEEDED THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30.

MARTIN

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