Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Springfield, MO

April 20, 2005Texas County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 20, 2005, 6:42 PM CDT for Texas County, Missouri. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 20, 2005, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
Expired: Apr 20, 2005, 7:31 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Texas County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 353 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -128 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 926 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 124 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 202346
SVRSGF
MOC215-210030-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0018.050420T2342Z-050421T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
THIS   STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROBY OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF FORT LEONARD 
WOOD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR HOUSTON BY 710 PM CDT.
  5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAYMONDVILLE BY 715 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HAZELTON...SUCCESS...PRESCOTT...BUCYRUS...YUKON AND 
EUNICE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

ADDITIONALLY...A SECOND SEVERE STORM WHICH EARLIER PRODUCED QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL AT LICKING HAD DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY...HOWEVER PENNY TO 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT TRACKS 
SOUTHEAST TOWARD HARTSHORN.

THIS WARNING EXTENDS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TEXAS 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3764 9206 3755 9225 3723 9207 3721 9165
      3748 9176

$$

RUNNELS

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 210018
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

MOC215-210030-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-050421T0030Z/
TEXAS MO-
714 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD DIMINISHED AS IT MOVED 
INTO THE SUCCESS AREA.  THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 
730 PM. 

A SECOND SEVERE STORM NEAR SUMMERSVILLE WILL HOWEVER PRODUCE HAIL TO 
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AS IT MOVES OUT OF TEXAS COUNTY INTO WEST 
CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTY.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM. 

LAT...LON 3764 9206 3755 9225 3723 9207 3721 9165
      3748 9176

$$

RUNNELS

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 210031
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

MOC215-210040-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-050421T0030Z/
TEXAS MO-
730 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TEXAS COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE...

AT 725 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

SMALL HAIL WILL STILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS IT TRACKS INTO 
THE HOUSTON AREA THROUGH 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3764 9206 3755 9225 3723 9207 3721 9165
      3748 9176

$$

RUNNELS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 20, 3:42 PM CDT, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 20, 3:42 PM CDT, 3 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

LAST NIGHTS NOCTURNAL MCS ACTUALLY HELD ITS OWN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...AND HAS SINCE BEGAN TO REGENERATE A BIT OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS MCS SHOULD EXIT FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
BY AROUND 00Z WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL JET COULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
MATERIALIZE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS IS THE CASE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...QUESTIONS LINGER REGARDING
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND MODE FOR TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LEFT
OVER CONVECTION FROM TONIGHT COULD BE MEANDERING ACROSS OUR CWA
TOMORROW MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AT LEAST
INITIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THAT MORNING CONVECTION DOESNT HAMPER DESTABILIZATION OR
ASSUMING THERE IS NO MORNING CONVECTION...THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MLCAPES POTENTIALLY REACHING 3000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SPEED
MAX WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
FRIDAY. COULD BE AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

IZZI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

INITIALLY THE FORECAST PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE TO OCCUR. MODELS AND
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES...AND
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES FELT COMFORTABLE LOWERING TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST HOW COLD NIGHTTIME LOWS GET WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS STILL SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING IN
THE MODELS...AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS MAY ACTUALLY DODGE A BULLET THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS TIMING ENDS UP PANNING
OUT PERFECTLY...THEN THE GRADIENT MAY BE TOO STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE PROBLEMS. BY SUNDAY...INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE THREAT
EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE VALLEYS/HOLES IN OUR EASTERN CWA. AGAIN...THIS
IS ALL BASED ON CURRENT TIMING IN THE MODELS. IF OUR AREA ENDS UP
PARKED UNDER THE RIDGE EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
THE THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZE WOULD DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 20, 6:40 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
640 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
  MPH...WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING...OR MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT LEONARD WOOD TO
  GAINESVILLE.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY NORTH
  AND WEST OF A JOPLIN TO OSAGE BEACH LINE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
  INDEED MAKE IT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN ONE OR
  TWO OF THE STORMS MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY
  WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
  SEVERE LIMITS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
  HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CLOUDINESS FROM MORNING
  PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THEN THE SEVERE
  WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE GREATLY DIMINISHED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING.

  UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
  DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
  SYSTEM...MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST OR
  POSSIBLY EVEN A FREEZE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

  FINALLY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY
  OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
  SERVICE THROUGH NORMAL REPORTING PROCEDURES. IN ADDITION...
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER/IZZI

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 20, 5:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             EDGAR SPRINGS           37.70N 91.87W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        PHELPS             MO   PUBLIC

JLT

Local storm report, Apr 20, 5:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             FORT LEONARD WOOD       37.75N 92.15W
04/20/2005  1.50 INCH        PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

JLT

Local storm report, Apr 20, 5:54 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             FORT LEONARD WOOD       37.75N 92.15W
04/20/2005  1.50 INCH        PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

JLT

Local storm report, Apr 20, 6:01 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             DUKE                    37.63N 92.03W
04/20/2005  1.75 INCH        PHELPS             MO   STORM CHASER

JLT

Local storm report, Apr 20, 6:19 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             5 S BRINKTOWN           38.06N 92.08W
04/20/2005  0.88 INCH        MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

0325 PM     HAIL             HANCOCK                 37.98N 92.18W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

0345 PM     HAIL             HAYDEN                  38.08N 91.97W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

MMT

Local storm report, Apr 20, 6:35 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             LICKING                 37.50N 91.87W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        TEXAS              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

JLT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 20, 4:17 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Maries, Miller, Pulaski	6 hr
Apr 20, 5:20 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Phelps	6 hr
Apr 20, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent	62 min
Apr 20, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Phelps, Pulaski	61 min
Apr 20, 6:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Texas	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.