Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 212310
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

MOC141-212345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-050721T2345Z/
MORGAN MO-
610 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

AT 607 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SMITHTON...OR 11 MILES EAST OF SEDALIA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
MORGAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF FLORENCE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3883 9318 3867 9327 3834 9269 3857 9254

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 212322
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

MOC141-212331-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-050721T2345Z/
MORGAN MO-
621 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MORGAN COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 619 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3883 9318 3867 9327 3834 9269 3857 9254

$$

LINDENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
HAD TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SCHELL CITY TO
BOLIVAR TO AVA MISSOURI.  A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
KANSAS CITY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

100 MIXED LAYER CAPES IN THIS AREA ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA...ARE
RUNNING AROUND 1700 J/KG...WITH ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS CAPE DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH ITS BEING REALIZED BY THESE
STORMS AS LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BASES OF THIS
CONVECTION IS VERY HIGH.  THEREFORE...I DONT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
BECOME SEVERE.  IF A COLD POOL CAN GET ORGANIZED...THEN WELL HAVE
TO RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGAN PENETRATING THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND MISSOURI OZARKS REGION...IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THAT REMAINS CONFINED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.  THIS
SHEAR AXIS TRIGGERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINED SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS BORDER.  TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
STRUGGLED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO ABOUT 105 DEGREES.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST
AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL HAVE
MET THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  LOCATIONS ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU
(INCLUDING SPRINGFIELD)...WILL NOT MEET THE CRITERIA...AS ELEVATION
EFFECTS LIMIT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...KEEPING HEAT
INDICES WITHIN THE 98 - 104 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER AS SOME DRY AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.  THIS MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT EFFECT ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.  ILL ADJUST
THE GRIDS TO BE ABOUT ONE DEGREE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHTS OBSERVED
LOWS...WHICH WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...JOPLIN WAS THE
WARM SPOT WITH A LOW OF 77.  PRECIPITATION WISE...THE ONGOING DRY
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT.  THERE ARE SOME MINOR INDICATIONS ON WATER
VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOWS A FEW SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE UPPER HIGH.  THE TRACK FOR THESE WAVES SHOULD REMAIN UP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL BECOME
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE OF MISSOURI BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  THESE TWO DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE HEAT
WAVE...WITH HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS OFF THE PLATEAU...UPPER 90S
ALONG THE PLATEAU.  HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR NEXT WEEK.

GFS AND THE ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DAMPENING OUT THE UPPER
RIDGE AND ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT
SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT.  THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FRONT STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION EXISTS AS WELL...WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME
ACTIVE WEATHER.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AT THE
KJLN/KSGF TAF SITES. ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NOT OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT
BEST. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES.  EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALL ZONES.
.KS...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BOURBON...CRAWFORD..CHEROKEE COUNTIES.  EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOURBON...CRAWFORD..CHEROKEE COUNTIES.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-222030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
327 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAT.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER AREAS ALONG AND
 NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SCHELL CITY TO BOLIVAR TO AVA MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS TRIGGERED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
 WHICH MAY AFFECT AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
 EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOUD TO
 GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.  NO SEVERE WEATHER
 IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

 A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY.
 TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED BY WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
 ACROSS MOST AREAS. COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE
 FROM 98 TO 108 DEGREES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL
 REMAIN LOWER ON THE OZARK PLATEAU...INCLUDING THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 THE HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
 HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS
 THROUGH SUNDAY.

 SOME RELIEF IN THE HEAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
 IS EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  ALONG WITH
 COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
 DEVELOP...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER