Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. 18Z SOUNDING FOR SGF SHOWED
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2800 J/KG WITH NO CAP. WIND PROFILE HAS DECENT
SPEED SHEAR WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. LATEST RADAR SHOWS BROKEN
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM MORGAN COUNTY SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST GREENE COUNTY WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRAVELLING QUICKLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. COORDINATED WITH SPC...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE OUT
THROUGH 11 PM FOR ALL AREAS EXPECT BOURBON COUNTY.

AS FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL LIKELY LET
IT EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WOULD LIKE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE MAKING FINAL CALL ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO EXTEND.

AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT...COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...FINALLY CLEARING OUT THE
QUASI-RESIDENT UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH MORE
BENIGN WEATHER AS PACIFIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...BUT DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AFTERNOON EARLY TUESDAY...ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVERRIDES UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LATER IN THE EXTENDED...GFS
HINTS AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WHICH MAY BRING OUR CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON STORMS BACK
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER KANSAS WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...PASSING THROUGH THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD
AIRPORTS BETWEEN ZERO AND 4Z TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ELEMENTS SHOULD REMAIN EITHER MVFR OR VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FOR ZONES
MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-093-101.
.KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FOR ZONES KSZ073-097-101.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1255 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
  PRODUCE:

  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG A
  COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
  WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
  SYSTEM WILL BRING AMPLE SHEAR TO THE AREA. THIS SHEAR AND
  INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
  SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THE STORMS TRACK EASTWARD
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. IN
  ADDITION...SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS
  WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
  STORMS. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA HAVE
  SATURATED SOILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY/CRAMER/SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             1 N (VIH)ROLLA/VICHY ARP38.14N 91.77W
06/13/2005  0.88 INCH        MARIES             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40-50 MPH WINDS AS WELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     WALL CLOUD       3 W FRIESTATT           37.02N 93.97W
06/13/2005                   LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TWO SEPARATE SPOTTERS INDENTIFIED A WALL CLOUD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     VERONA                  36.97N 93.80W
06/13/2005                   LAWRENCE           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERONA FD REPORTS FUNNEL CLOUD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

MOZ070-140030-
PULASKI-
653 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM
CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAYNESVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT
LEONARD WOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
WAYNESVILLE...ST. ROBERT AND DIXON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             2 E MT VERNON           37.10N 93.79W
06/13/2005  1.00 INCH        LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
720 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             REPUBLIC                37.12N 93.48W
06/13/2005  1.00 INCH        GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0718 PM     HAIL             CHESAPEAKE              37.12N 93.68W
06/13/2005  0.88 INCH        LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0719 PM     HAIL             REPUBLIC                37.12N 93.48W
06/13/2005  1.75 INCH        GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT