Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CLASSIC SETUP FOR A FLOOD EVENT UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH HANDLES THIS
VERY WELL...SO PLAN NO MODIFICATIONS. UP TO 45 KNOT 850 MB JET
SCREAMING INTO SRN EDGE OF MCS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT ALL THE WAY BACK
TO JUST NORTHWEST OF WICHITA. MULTIPLE STRONG TO SEVERE BOWING CELLS
RIDING ALONG SRN EDGE OF CONVECTION...AND THESE ARE ONLY ACTING TO
INTENSIFY THE RAIN RATES. ICT 88D RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW 6 TO 8
INCHES JUST WEST OF CHANUTE...AND WITH CHANUTE ASOS SHOWING 3.45
INCHES IN AN 88D ZONE OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...THINK THAT 88D ESTIMATES
ARE VERY CLOSE TO REALITY. SGF 88D LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ABOUT ONE
INCH TOO HIGH IN THE SAME AREA. THIS SAID...BAND OF 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN
IS LIKELY TO LAY OUT IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

AS LLJ CONTINUES TO VEER THIS MORNING...THINK THAT CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY AROUND 10 AM. THIS LEAVES PLENTY OF TIME
TO GET AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...CAPE SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CONTINUED 40 TO 50 POPS
GENERALLY FROM SGF NORTHEASTWARD. CAP TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT
CONVECTION THERE...BUT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 103 TO 105 RANGE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT IS POSSIBLE TO OUR NORTH
AS ANOTHER RIPPLE RIDES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH. AM CONCERNED
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY THOUGH OF CONVECTION FIRING SEWD INTO CENTRAL
MO...AS 850 MB CONVERGENCE LOOKS SUBSTANTIAL IN BOTH MODELS...AND
BOTH MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME PRECIP. GIVEN PWATS OF NEARLY 2
INCHES...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL LIKELY PUT DOWN VERY
IMPRESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS. IF AN MCS DOES IN FACT FORM NEAR
TOPEKA...MESOSCALE CIRCULATION AROUND IT COULD FORM WARM WING
CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS INTO CENTRAL MO. WILL BRIEF DAY
SHIFT AND THEY CAN REEXAMINE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAIN
TONIGHT.

MAIN AXIS OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SO RAIN CHANCES LINGER UNTIL THEN. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS OK. NORTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH
COULD SPELL ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN ON MONDAY HOWEVER.

BROWNING

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOOKS LIKE MAIN MCS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE JLN AND SGF FORECAST POINTS.  THAT SAID...SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
COMPLEX MAY AFFECT THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT BOTH JLN AND SGF.  OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOURBON
COUNTY.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
846 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FLOODING HAZARD...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DEPENDING
ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG/DSA