Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 250602
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

KSC011-250930-
BOURBON KS-
1257 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 430 AM
CDT...

AT 1255 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS AFFECTED THE 
NORTHWEST HALF OF BOURBON COUNTY...OR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A 
LINE FROM PORTERVILLE...TO REDFIELD...TO HAMMOND.  

AN ADDITIONAL TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 
SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT BOURBON COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN...DEVON...
GARLAND...HAMMOND...HARDING...HIATTVILLE...MAPLETON...MARMATON...
PAWNEE STATION...PETERSBURG AND XENIA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3802 9463 3768 9463 3769 9507 3802 9506

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SECONDARY CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM IS ALSO ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SEEING A SIMILAR SET UP THAT WE SAW 24 HOURS AGO...WITH OLD
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MOVING INTO WESTERN MO. SURFACE HEATING IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL BACK INTO THE 80S. RESULTANT
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ANOTHER BETTER
LOOKING UPPER SYSTEM IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT
THIS TIME. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN AXIS OF LOW-MID 70
DEWPOINTS...TEMPS NEAR 90 DEG F OVER SE KS...AND A BACKED SFC FLOW.
CUMULUS BUILDING IN SOUTHEAST KS. 100MB MIXED LAYER CAPES ABOUT
1000-1500 J/KG OFF THE RUC...BUT SUSPECT THEY ARE A BIT HIGHER IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS NEAR KCFV. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TONIGHT. WENT PRIMARILY WITH THE
GFS...MINUS THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
AGAIN SET UP OVER OK/KS AND GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE WITH INCREASING LOW AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INCREASE PWATS TO
AROUND 2.00 INCHES THURSDAY MORNING. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED OVER EAST CENTRAL KS/WEST CENTRAL MO LATE TONIGHT THU
MORNING. LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED BY 300/250MB JET STREAK PROGGED TO
EXTEND FROM NE KS INTO IA LATE TONIGHT AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE 500MB FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTH CNTRL KS BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ALL-IN-ALL PROBABLY NOT A SLAM DUNK IN TERMS
OF WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE
EXISTS TO GO AHEAD WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATCH AREA IS BASED GREATLY WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO BE MAXIMIZED.

WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT SOME RECOVERY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WEAKENING SYSTEM. COULD SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM
AFFECT EASTERN KS WESTERN MO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. WE MAY ALSO SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE FRINGES OF THE MESOSCALE
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY IF MAIN CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AND
DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY (OR TOMORROW FOR THAT
MATTER). PICTURE BY THAT TIME IS GETTING TO DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN...OTHER THAN TO KEEP RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

HIGH AMPLITUDE...BUT PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL FLOW IN SOUTHERN
CANADA/NORTHERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA...THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH SYSTEM NOW SLOWLY TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA.DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SO WILL MAINTAIN RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALBERTA/PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MONDAY. RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PLAINS...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO MOVE A WEAKNESS IN
THE 500MB FLOW THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
POPS FOR MONDAY...OTHERWISE WENT DRY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM CARTHAGE TO
SELIGMAN AS OF 2230Z.  BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND IF TREND
CONTINUES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE JLN AREA IN COUPLE OF HOURS.  SO
HAVE ADDED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP TO THE JLN TAFS FOR EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA.  HAVE THROWN IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH SGF/JLN FOR
TSRA AFTER 08Z.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOURBON
COUNTY.

DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
846 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FLOODING HAZARD...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DEPENDING
ON THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT BECAUSE OF THE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG/DSA