Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 181442
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

MOC141-181450-
MORGAN MO-
940 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CALLS TO AREA LAW 
ENFORCEMENT INDICATE THAT NO LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING.  


LAT...LON 3860 9280 3845 9266 3828 9277 3831 9306
      3872 9307 3871 9287

$$

DSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER OUR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM STOCKTON NORTHWARD TOWARD WARSAW...ALONG AN AREA OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS NORTHWEST INTO KC METRO...AND AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST IR SATELLITE
SHOWS SOME CLOUD TOP COOLING SO SHOULD SEE STORMS INTENSIFY A BIT.
HOWEVER WITH STORMS MOVING INTO AREA OF LOWER CAPE AND
MOISTURE...DONT EXPECT THEM TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAT. THEREAFTER WILL FOCUS ON FROPA SATURDAY AND RESULTING COOL
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH INITIALIZED WELL FROM THE 00Z KSGF
SOUNDING...CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THURS/FRI WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPS RATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW GETS STRONGER TODAY WITH SOME
WEAKENING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES TODAY...BACK OFF POPS TONIGHT AND
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES IN FRIDAY. ONCE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RAISE POPS BACK INTO CHANCE CATEGORY.

850 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S C TODAY/FRIDAY SHOULD MIX
DOWN WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER
70S...HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER/STORM COVERAGE TO KEEP FROM ISSUING AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COOL DOWN BEHIND FROPA ON SATURDAY. MID 80S
MAY STILL BE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
ANALYZE TRENDS BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON WIND PROFILE DATA...TAF SITES ARE MARGINAL FOR WIND SHEAR AT THIS
TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE WIND SHEAR UNTIL 14Z. THEREAFTER THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WITH LACK OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CARRY VICINITY THUNDER FOR NOW AND LET
LATER SHIFTS INCLUDE TEMPO THUNDER IF NEEDED.

TERRY
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
554 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
  CAMDENTON TO WEST PLAINS THROUGH 8 PM...AND OVER THE REST OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA FROM NOON TO 8 PM.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
  WEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO STOCKTON TO OSAGE BEACH
  FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
  NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM VERSAILLES TO FORT LEONARD
  WOOD THROUGH THE MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
  GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

  LATER TODAY...THE AIRMASS OVER THE OZARKS REGION WILL
  DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S...LEADING TO
  SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  THE HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINT
  TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX
  VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
  OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
  ON FRIDAY AS THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
  REGION.

  ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY