Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 061632
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

MOC065-062030-
DENT MO-
1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR DENT COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 1120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAD DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LINGERED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN DENT 
COUNTY...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF DENT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE 
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE 
AREAS BETWEEN DARIEN...SALEM...AND LENOX...AND ALONG DRY FORK CREEK.

FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE LOW WATER CROSSING AT   
HIGHWAY DD ON DRY FORK CREEK. 

BECAUSE OF THE HILLY TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF 
LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. 

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3776 9134 3743 9132 3744 9173 3777 9179

$$

FOSTER

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 062026
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

MOC065-062036-
DENT MO-
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR DENT COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.


LAT...LON 3776 9134 3743 9132 3744 9173 3777 9179

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARD THE OZARKS WHILE SHOWING INDICATIONS OF SHEARING OUT WITH
TIME.  THIS FEATURE HAS AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A BAND
OF UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS.  THERE ARE A COUPLE
OF COMPONENTS WITHIN THE JET STREAK THAT ARE CAUSING THE ETA AND GFS
TO GENERATE QPF.  PROFILERS AND UPPER AIR OBS INDICATE A SPEED MAX
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A
SECONDARY SPEED MAX IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE ETA
DEVELOPS A DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH IN TURN
GENERATES QPF THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  WILL
PARTIALLY BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUED
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENING...AND NOW REDEVELOPING IN A FEW
AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THEREFORE...ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UPPER FORCING...WITH CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH INTO THIS
EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.  AS A MATTER OF
FACT...I WENT AHEAD AND PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES.  WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
IF A COUPLE SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ARKANSAS - MISSOURI STATE
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT AREAL COVERAGE DOESNT WARRANT ANY
MENTION OF POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS AGREE ON BRINGING BULK MOISTURE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  WITH MID LEVEL R.HS INCREASING TO 50% OR
ABOVE...AFTERNOON PULSERS ARE A GOOD BET.  INTRODUCED SOME POPS IN
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LOWER 48 AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEXT WEEK.  FLOW BECOMES WEAK WITH THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK CONFINED ACROSS CANADA.  MODELS ARE NOW BACKING
OFF WITH BRINGING AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED.  THEREFORE WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE MID 90S ON
A DAILY BASIS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY...HOWEVER...AREAL
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND LEFT THUNDER
OUT OF THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.  AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AFFECTING THE WEST PLAINS AIRPORT.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO VALUES APPROACHING IFR THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING NEAR WEST
PLAINS.  OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD...UNLESS A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPS NEAR THE AIRPORTS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

CRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
553 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...CLOUD TO
 GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
 ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
 ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
 BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EMINENCE TO WILLARD TO
 JOPLIN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

 A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME UNSTABLE TODAY
 WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN
 DEVELOPING THIS ACTIVITY...AND MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY OF
 STORM UPDRAFTS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MICROBURSTS
 CAUSING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE
 TRAVELS NORTH BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AFTERNOON
 DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE STORMS CAUSING ISOLATED
 MICROBURSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER