Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
224 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK...THUS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  ON SUNDAY THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ETA.  GFS BRING A LARGE SLOW
MOVING AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE/QPF OVER THE AREA MID DAY SUNDAY AND
BEYOND WHILE THE ETA IS NOT NEARLY AS WET AND FURTHER WEST.  THE
DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE WITH THE HANDLING OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE ETA BUILDS IT FURTHER WEST THEN THE GFS WHICH
RESULTS IN DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.  FOR NOW WILL USE A COMPROMISE
OF THESE MODELS.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL MIN/MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

SLOW MOVING DETACHED UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS PROGNOSTICATED TO SLOWLY
HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR REGION ON THE FAVORED SIDE FOR BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS OPPOSED TO THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VARIETY WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT PAST FEW DAYS. ONE TRICKY POINT IS THE FOCUS
FOR THE BEST CHANCES. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL SUGGEST THE REGION
AROUND THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAIN...AND THUS HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE NESTED GRIDDED MODEL AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN MODEL FAVOR A SOLUTION ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THIS
POSITION AND HAS LESS QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FOR THE
FORECAST WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THESE THREE MODELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE CONTINUES
AROUND A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL MEAN
A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS
ON THE UPSLOPE ENHANCED AREA ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIT OR MISS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VARIETY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW AN INCREASING TREND.

FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM AND THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP. HAVE ADDED CB TO AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CLOUD TYPE. CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z. HAVE ADDED
BR TO ALL SITES AFTER 04Z. AREA OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT BLF BY 18Z
SUN...COULD AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AFTER 18Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

HL/DS/HL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
424 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-070830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
424 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

VAZ022-033-034-070015-
ROANOKE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...ROCKY MOUNT...BEDFORD
606 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...

AT 600 PM EDT...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
FRANKLIN COUNTY. THESE STORMS EXTENDED FROM ROCKY MOUNT TO
PENHOOK...AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FRANKLIN BY 700 PM. WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY BOATERS ON SMITH MOUNTAIN
LAKE...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION
TO THE WIND...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH SMALL
HAIL IS LIKELY. FOR YOUR SAFETY...PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IN DOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

VAZ012>014-070045-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYTHEVILLE...PULASKI...RADFORD...
BLACKSBURG
633 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...

AT 630 PM EDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM PILOT
VIRGINIA IN SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...TO NEAR IVANHOE IN
SOUTHERN WYTHE COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL EFFECT THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
CHRISTIANSBURG AND WYTHEVILLE BETWEEN 700 AND 730 PM.
INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY BOATERS ON CLAYTOR LAKE...SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MILES AN HOUR.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

VAZ022>024-034-035-045-062345-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG
639 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...

AT 640 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY FROM ROANOKE TO NATURAL
BRIDGE...AND ALONG ROUTE 460 FROM BEDFORD TO LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA.
THIS THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR. SMALL HAIL AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY. FOR YOUR
SAFETY...PLEASE MOVE INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

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