Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY 06Z. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
AFTER THAT AS THE COLD FRONT OVER IL ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE CWA AND SHOULD BE AT OUR WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z.
KEPT KEPT SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FOR OVERNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT WENT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COOLING TEMPS A TAD.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

STRONG COLD FRONT POISED TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.  SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE REGION FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT WATER MAY BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES AND A MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING.
DEBATING ON HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AND SIDED WITH HIGH
CHANCE...DUE TO SOME CONCERN ON AREAL COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF
THICKER CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LESS
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY.  AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE AGAIN AND INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS.  GENERALLY
WENT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 125 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005)

AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WITH
IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS LIGHT EXCEPT WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 20KTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS FROM 00Z-05Z. AFTER 05Z
MVFR TO IFR IN FOG.  COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
TOMORROW WINDS TURN WESTERLY AFTER 15Z WITH SCT-BKN035.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT POPS LESS THAN 50 AND WONT
MENTION AT THIS ISSUANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1235 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005)

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER OUR AREA AND OTHER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER QUICKLY FROM COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND BE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1041 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

QUICK UPDATE MAINLY FOR WORDING.  A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE JUST
WEST OF CWA. MAIN LINE ACROSS INDIANA ATTM.  IF THIS LINE MAKES IT
HERE IT WILL BE LATER ON TOWARDS EVENING.  FLOW RATHER WEAK AND PWS
RATHER HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY AND WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.  WILL ADD HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN
WORDING.  OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...HC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-026>032-
037>040-047-010745-
ATHENS OH-BARBOUR WV-BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BRAXTON WV-CABELL WV-
CALHOUN WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DODDRIDGE WV-GALLIA OH-GILMER WV-
GREENUP KY-HARRISON WV-JACKSON WV-JACKSON OH-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-
LAWRENCE KY-LEWIS WV-LINCOLN WV-MASON WV-MEIGS OH-MORGAN OH-
NICHOLAS WV-PERRY OH-PLEASANTS WV-PUTNAM WV-RANDOLPH WV-RITCHIE WV-
ROANE WV-TAYLOR WV-TYLER WV-UPSHUR WV-VINTON OH-WASHINGTON OH-
WAYNE WV-WEBSTER WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
346 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY...SO VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033>036-046-010745-
BUCHANAN VA-DICKENSON VA-FAYETTE WV-LOGAN WV-MCDOWELL WV-MINGO WV-
POCAHONTAS WV-RALEIGH WV-WYOMING WV-
346 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 N CANNONSBURG         38.40N 82.70W
06/30/2005  0.88 INCH        BOYD               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ROCKDALE

&&

COLEMAN

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