Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 132002
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
402 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

VAC051-132012-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-050513T2015Z/
DICKENSON VA-
402 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL DICKENSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER OTHER WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3714 8236 3717 8236 3720 8223 3716 8221
      3713 8218 3712 8219 3710 8217 3711 8215
      3710 8215 3709 8234

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

INSTABILITY WEST OF MOUNTAINS THIS EVE WILL MEAN TSTORMS UNTIL SUN
GOES DOWN.  HAVE PLAYED THE APPROACH OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT LATE
AS ETA IS FASTEST OF MODEL AND IT HOLDS THINGS WEST OF OHIO RIVER.
RAISED MINS TONIGHT WITH GRADIENT INCREASING.

INCREASED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR
ALL BUT HIGHEST LOCATIONS IN CWA.

NAM INITIALLY QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN SLOWS DOWN THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SUNDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH GFS SOLUTION.  WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND WILL
KICK UP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS AS WELL.  GUIDANCE
VALUES HERE ARE VERY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EACH OTHER HERE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOT IN A HURRY TO BUILD IN...LINGERING MOISTURE
AND SOME INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA.

A PRETTY GOOD COOL DOWN IS FIGURED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -1C BY 12Z MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 140 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005)

AVIATION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...ARE BEGINNING TO Q UP.  WILL WATCH THE POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS
E KY AND W VA...AS THEY NEAR BKW.  HAVE INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF
A THUNDERSTORM HERE FOR MID AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ALL AROUND.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS WORKING HARD TO KEEP
THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS FROM FORMING...BUT IN A LOSING BATTLE.  OVER
THE NEXT 18 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
PICTURE FROM THE WEST.  WILL NEED TO LOWER CEILINGS AND START THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AFTER
DAY BREAK SATURDAY.  BY 18Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
OHIO.  WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 KTS COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1246 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005)

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

HPC UTILIZED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH BETWEEN THE AMPLIFIED
CANADIAN AND THE SUPPRESSING GFS.  THIS HAPPENS TO BE VERY SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT DID KICK THE COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK TO OUR EAST QUICKER...SIMILAR TO THE GFS FOR DAYS 6 AND
7.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 650 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005)

AVIATION...

LIFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AT CRW/HTS BUT SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY BY 15-16Z...OTHERWISE MVFR VISIBILITY AT BKW AND VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FROM 18Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE
WESTERN SITES CLOSE TO 12Z SATURDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PUT IN TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICK UP AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM LIFTED EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS.
SOME NOCTURNAL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND MORE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS WILL BREAK
UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS HEATING TAKES PLACE.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH TODAY...850H TEMPS INCREASE TO
NEAR +16C.  THINK THERE WILL BE ALOT OF SUNSHINE SEEN THROUGH A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODERATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LITTLE
BIT OF A CAP...BUT THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE OUTSIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THERE IS NO REAL FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION.  THEREFORE HAVE CARRIED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY...THINKING HEATING ALONE COULD BE ABLE TO
POP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  WENT ABOVE MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY...THINKING
SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH WARMING 850H TEMPS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REACH MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT COMING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE SURGE ON
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS...WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW A DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD AID ANY NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT...SO THAT
DECENT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCE FARTHER EASTWARD. MIDDLE OF THE ROAD MAV
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE ON SATURDAY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO BUILD IN QUICKLY...SO
THAT LINGERING MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALOFT WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR THE
ENHANCED INSTABILITY. MODELS CLOSE FOR SUNDAY TEMPS. CLEARING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KF/ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-140752-
ATHENS OH-BARBOUR WV-BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BRAXTON WV-BUCHANAN VA-
CABELL WV-CALHOUN WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DICKENSON VA-DODDRIDGE WV-
FAYETTE WV-GALLIA OH-GILMER WV-GREENUP KY-HARRISON WV-JACKSON WV-
JACKSON OH-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LEWIS WV-LINCOLN WV-
LOGAN WV-MASON WV-MCDOWELL WV-MEIGS OH-MINGO WV-MORGAN OH-
NICHOLAS WV-PERRY OH-PLEASANTS WV-POCAHONTAS WV-PUTNAM WV-RALEIGH WV-
RANDOLPH WV-RITCHIE WV-ROANE WV-TAYLOR WV-TYLER WV-UPSHUR WV-
VINTON OH-WASHINGTON OH-WAYNE WV-WEBSTER WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
WYOMING WV-
353 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG THUNDERSTRORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

VAZ004-131915-
BUCHANAN VA-
230 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG BUCHANAN
COUNTY...VIRGINIA AND PIKE COUNTY...KENTUCKY STATE LINE...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ROSEANN...
  BIG ROCK AND HURLEY.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

WVZ033-131930-
MCDOWELL WV-
258 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

...A COUPLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MCDOWELL
COUNTY...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WELCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE KIMBALL...
  GARY AND DAVY.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF AN
INCH UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  THIS RAIN MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

WVZ025-131945-
LOGAN WV-
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF GILBERT CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MAN...
  MALLORY AND AMHERSTDALE-ROBINETTE.

EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             HAYSI                   37.21N 82.29W
05/13/2005  1.75 INCH        DICKENSON          VA   POST OFFICE

&&

KF