Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 231924
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

WVC005-231934-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-050323T1930Z/
BOONE WV-
224 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOONE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
COUNTY...NOT BEFORE PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE VICINITY OF 
ORGAS. 

LAT...LON 3796 8191 3797 8192 3798 8198 3803 8191
      3805 8195 3806 8194 3819 8169 3818 8167
      3806 8156 3794 8178

$$

29

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN UNSETTLED BUT MILD PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS AS TO WHICH OF THE SHORT WAVES IN THE VERY ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYERS. THE
IMPORTANT NOTE IS THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS
AS THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH SYSTEM DO NOT GET
THAT FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...WILL NOT AS YET ADDRESS ANY WATER PROBLEMS
AT THIS EARLY DATE. THE GFS WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE DETAILS. ONE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA ON FRIDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT CONVECTION IS LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONE THAT EJECTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...A SWATH OF CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY NOW BE ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR LATER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL
LEAVE FOR LATER SHIFT TO EXAMINE LATER MODEL RUN FOR CONTINUITY.

MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD FOR EARLY PERIODS...BUT PERHAPS
TOO WARM FOR THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1250 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005)

AVIATION...

SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.  MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BY
AND EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.  PKB SHOULD REMAIN IN
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THEY ARE IN THE COLD
AIR...WHILE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS THE UPPER
LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1015 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF LOWS...ONE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE OTHER OVER EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LARGE CLEARING AREA
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE
UP THE MOUNTAINS IN WAKE OF UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING STRATIFORM
RAINS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.  SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS TODAY
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AND COLD POOL ALOFT INTERACTION
AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.  LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT AND SPC HAS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN SLIGHT RISK.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO POP AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLEARING...BUT
THEN BRING LIKELY POPS AND CLOUDS BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AS LINES OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.  ALSO WARMED UP TEMPERATURES
IN AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE CLEARING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 409 AM EST WED MAR 23 2005)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND DAY 3.  UKMET AND
CANADIAN SLOWER IN MOVING LOW ACROSS REGION OVER WEEKEND.  THESE
MODELS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON FEATURES LATELY SO CONTINUED WITH
THIS TREND AS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT.  IT WAS NOTED THAT THE LATEST RUN
OF THE CANADIAN HOWEVER DIFFERED FROM THE UKMET.  BASED ON THESE
DIFFERENCES DECIDED TO STICK WITH ON-GOING FORECAST AND ONLY MAKE
SOME TWEAKS IN BASICALLY TEMPS/POPS.  AFTER THIS WEEKEND WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...JMV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

WVZ024-231830-
MINGO WV-
1241 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR MINGO COUNTY...

AT 1241 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLIAMSON...OR ABOUT 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  THIS
STORM WILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE RED
JACKET...MATEWAN...DELBARTON AND CHATTAROY.

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             7 NNE DELBARTON         37.80N 82.14W
03/23/2005  0.75 INCH        MINGO              WV   POST OFFICE

&&

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EST WED MAR 23 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             CHAPMANVILLE            37.97N 82.02W
03/23/2005  0.75 INCH        LOGAN              WV   POST OFFICE

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

JIMC