Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WGUS71 KRLX 132018
FFSRLX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

WVC083-097-132115-
UPSHUR WV-RANDOLPH WV-
410 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR MAINLY 
WESTERN RANDOLPH AND EASTERN UPSHUR COUNTIES...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST AND NORTH OF THE WARNED AREA.  
NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SO FAR FROM THE HEAVY 
RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3873 8034 3855 8017 3897 7977 3895 8006
      3901 8010 3897 8026

$$

JMV

000 
WGUS71 KRLX 132120
FFSRLX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

WVC083-097-132123-
UPSHUR WV-RANDOLPH WV-
513 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR RANDOLPH AND UPSHUR COUNTIES WILL 
EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY RAINS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE 
WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 515 PM HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND WE WILL MONITOR FOR 
ANY POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. 

LAT...LON 3873 8034 3855 8017 3897 7977 3895 8006
      3901 8010 3897 8026

$$

JMV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.AVIATION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN INDIANA WILL PRODUCE A WIDE ARRAY OF
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM MVFR TO IFR IN THE WEST
UNDER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS.  FOR EASTERN SITES...THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW ARE NOT BEING FELT AND VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING.  HTS WILL BE DEEPEST INTO THE THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION.  JUST WEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS KY AND OHIO...THE CEILINGS ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FT.  IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THOSE CEILINGS MAY MAKE IT TO HTS.  FOR
BKW/CRW/PKB...THEY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE GRADIENT SO A VARIETY
OF CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE.  VISIBILITIES COULD BE
REDUCED IN THE SHOWERS AND IF SOME RAIN IS SEEN...COULD SEE SOME
PATCH FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MATERIALIZE.
FOR CKB/EKN...THE CHANCES OF GETTING INTO THE MOISTURE WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE MUCH LOWER.  BUT WITH THE VFR CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR EKN
SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1010 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH ERN KY AND EXTREME SERN OH INTO
THE COAL FIELDS OF WV.  THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF WV
AND CHARLESTON BEFORE CURVING BACK TO THE WEST...WRAPPING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW.  MEANWHILE TO THE NERN PART OF THE AREA...CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING TO OCCUR.
HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE POPS TO HOLD TO MORE OF A DIURNAL
IMPACT WITH SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AT THIS
POINT...HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IT LOOKS
REASONABLE...BUT IF THE SUN IS OUT LONGER IN THE NERN PART OF THE
AREA...COULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB AND ADDITIONAL 3 DEGREES FROM WHAT IS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 629 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

AVIATION (12Z TO 12Z)...

RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT FM DENNIS CONTS TO MOVE
EVER SO SLOWLY E.  USING LINEAR INTERPOLATION...PRECIP COMMENCES AT
HTS BY 12Z AND CONTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  CRW AND PKB SHOULD SEE RA
BY MIDDAY...WHILE CKB...EKN...AND BKW ONLY SEE SCT ACTIVITY.

KEPT SHRA AT VFR WITH S/SW WINDS BTWN 5-10KTS...HOWEVER WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MVFR IN A MORE INTENSE RW.  DID NOT INCLUDE TRW IN
ANY TAF PER LOW PROB.  NRN TAF SITES HAVE GREATEST CHC FOR
TSTMS...BUT WITH ACTIVITY SCT LEFT OUT ATT.

UPR LOW REMAINS STATIONARY TONIGHT NEAR KSDF...SO NOT EXCITED WITH
PRECIP CHCS WITH SPOKES OF UPR LVL ENERGY REMAINING OFF TO THE
EAST.  MUCH LIKE TDY...WRN TERMINALS HAVE BEST SHOT GIVEN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO H5-H7 LOW.  ANY RA THAT OCCURS TDY WL LEAD TO IFR FG
OVERNIGHT.  IN THE MEANTIME...LEFT THINGS VFR TNGT AT ALL SITES WITH
BKN ALTOCU ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 325 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

REMNANTS OF DENNIS CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN WEST OF FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  SYSTEM STALLS AFTER APPROACHING AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LEAVING THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FEED OF THETA
E SO AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
PWS CONTINUE HIGH BUT INSTABILITY IS MODERATE AT BEST DURING PEAK
HEATING.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM REMNANTS OF DENNIS HAVE BEEN A
BIT UNDERWHELMING PAST 24 HOURS.

ROLLED WITH LIKELY MOST OF THE AREA AND THIS IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY...HIGHEST POPS PAINTED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS.  AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AND BECOME MORE BAROTROPIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS LESS AND LESS TO FOCUS ON AND NOT MUCH
ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO CURRENT PACKAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY AND WENT WITH
BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS EXCEPT WITH THE LOWER MAV BKW
THURSDAY ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.  EASED HIGHS OFF A BIT
FRIDAY...DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER MAV NUMBERS...OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WEST LOOKED OK...THIS WAS BASICALLY JUST AN
EDIT.  LOWS ARE LESS TRICKY IN THIS PATTERN...JUST ABOVE THE
PREVAILING DEW POINTS...UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...ESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-140900-
ATHENS OH-BARBOUR WV-BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BRAXTON WV-BUCHANAN VA-
CABELL WV-CALHOUN WV-CARTER KY-CLAY WV-DICKENSON VA-DODDRIDGE WV-
FAYETTE WV-GALLIA OH-GILMER WV-GREENUP KY-HARRISON WV-JACKSON WV-
JACKSON OH-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LEWIS WV-LINCOLN WV-
LOGAN WV-MASON WV-MCDOWELL WV-MEIGS OH-MINGO WV-MORGAN OH-
NICHOLAS WV-PERRY OH-PLEASANTS WV-POCAHONTAS WV-PUTNAM WV-RALEIGH WV-
RANDOLPH WV-RITCHIE WV-ROANE WV-TAYLOR WV-TYLER WV-UPSHUR WV-
VINTON OH-WASHINGTON OH-WAYNE WV-WEBSTER WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
WYOMING WV-
407 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TRM