Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
318 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ACTIVE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO REPORTS YET BUT SOME SMALL TO
MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTS. IN ADDITION...WEEK BUT FAIRLY DEEP E-SE
FLOW UP TO H7 COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTION WITH
SURFACE FRONT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE CREATING SOME
STATIONARY BACK BUILDING STORMS IN NW NATRONA AND NOW MAYBE
NORTHEAST FREMONT COUNTY. ACTIVE EVENING IN STORE AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH HIGHER THETA AIR AND
POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS. BY TOMORROW...MOIST
BOUNDARY HOLDS IN THE EAST WITH BEST CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES. ON FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH UP AGAINST
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF SWRN
CANADA. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE WIND
RIVER MOUNTAINS UP INTO THE SRN ABSAROKAS WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE THERE. AIRMASS MUCH MORE STABLE IN OUR NERN ZONES. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND GO WITH IDEA OF LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
READING IN THE 60S AND 70S MOST AREAS...COOLEST IN THE NORTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
DIVIDE. THIS SHOULD ALL ACT ON SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY FOR A
CONTINUED ISOLATED RISK OF STORMS MOST AREAS. NO MONSOON CONNECTION
WITH THIS FLOW...SO STORMS SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST GFS DOES BEGIN TO BACK THE FLOW TO MORE
SOUTHERLY TO PUSH BETTER MOISTURE BACK NORTH. THIS IS WHERE ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SO STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT WARRANT
MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS INTO MID WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LATEST GFS
CONSISTENT WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ON WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH
9 PM FOR BIG HORN...NATRONA...WASHAKIE...HOT SPRINGS...PARK AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...FRIEDERS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>