Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT NOW PARKED OVER CENTRAL WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GET A SECONDARY SURGE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ID WITH ADDED UPPER JET
SUPPORT AS WELL OVERUNNING THIS FRONT. INSTABILITY CONTINUING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPES INTO THE FAR
WEST. THIS IS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH ACTIVITY NOW WORKING EAST INTO THE BASINS.
WITH THIS UPPER SUPPORT COMBINED WITH ADDED UPSLOPE FLOW...HAVE
RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ESPECIALLY FROM THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE CENTRAL BASINS
CLOSER TO FRONT. SHOWER POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL ALL NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. TROUGH PASSES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AND SO THINGS SHOULD BE ON A DRYING
TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. LATEST NAM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY HANGING BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKAS AND UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THERFORE A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
IT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE MONSOON WILL RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE HOLD OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A DRY DAY.
LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST MTNS BUT THIS SEEMS IFFY
AT BEST WITH GFS SHOWING DRY MID LEVELS AND LIMITED IF ANY
INSTABILITY. CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW UP FRIDAY AS 4-CORNERS HIGH
BEGINS TO REBUILD ALLOWING SEEPAGE OF MOISTURE NWD INTO WESTERN
WYOMING LATE IN THE DAY. BY SATURDAY...MOISTURE FLOW IS INCREASING
WITH ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE. SUNDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY IF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE RIGHT WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ACTING ON STRONG MOISTURE PLUME
AND POSSIBLE GREAT BASIN TROUGH FOCUSING CONVECTION. MONDAY IS A
TOUGH CALL BUT HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS IN THE EAST IN THE
MORNING AND CONFINED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE
TO SEE TONIGHT IF MONSOON WILL QUICKLY RELOAD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
OR IF WELL GET A COUPLE DRY DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...FRIEDERS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC

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