Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER COLORADO. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN WHERE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS NOTED. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE SEPARATING DEW POINTS
IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S OVER JOHNSON COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER A MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THEY CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN WY THIS EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE JACKED UP POPS INTO
THE 30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. THE HIGH OVER COLORADO WILL DRIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST TO KANSAS SATURDAY. THE MONSOON MOISTURE ARCHING
NORTH ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING
SATURDAY TAKING MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ELONGATE TO OUR SOUTH TURNING THE FLOW
MORE WESTERLY. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT A SERIES OF POORLY
DEFINED DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK EASTWARD IN THE FLOW PRODUCING MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 90S SATURDAY MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER IN SOUTHERN WY WITH BETTER STORMS COVERAGE WITH HIGHS
MAINLY BELOW 90. SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST
EVERYWHERE. BY LATE MONDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BEHIND IT. H7 TEMPS WILL DROP TO 9C IN NORTHERN WY WITH HIGHS
ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN NORTHERN WY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN LATE MON NT. TUE LOOKS MODRY ASIDE
FROM A FEW MTN TS POSSIBLE. AIRMASS MAY BE TOO STABLE TUE PM BUT CAN
LOOK AT THIS AGAIN TONIGHT. WED LOOKS DRY. IF NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING
THRU THE FLOW IS FOR REAL THU PM/EVE THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SPAWN ISOLD TS IN THE W ZONES. WILL EXAMINE THIS MORE
CLOSELY AS DAYS GO BY. DRY WX FRI FOR NOW IN LIEU OF DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. MAINTAIN THE COOLER HIGHS FOR MON WITH
WARMING TUE AND WED. HIGHS THU/FRI LITTLE CHANGED FROM WED AS 700MB
TEMPS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2005

WYZ001>020-022>030-231200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. PEOPLE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD TAKE
MEASURES TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS A LARGE CONCENTRATION
OF STRIKES IN ANY GIVEN AREA COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE WILDFIRE
IGNITION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SATURDAY WITH A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A LITTLE
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TRIW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
500 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2005

WYZ001>020-022>030-230230-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
500 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING MAY PRODUCE
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THIS EVENING...

WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WEST AND CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THESE HIGH-BASED
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH.  STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE CAUSED BY RAINFALL FROM THE STORM
EVAPORATING AND COOLING AIR BENEATH THE STORM.
THE COOL AIR BECOMES HEAVIER THAN THE SURROUNDING AIR AND
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE GROUND...WITH THE COOL AIRMASS SPREADING OUT
IN ALL DIRECTIONS ONCE IT STRIKES THE GROUND.  THIS OUTWARD RUSHING
AIR CAN PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IF A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA THIS EVENING BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.  STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF
INDOORS.  IF OUTDOORS...BE PREPARED FOR STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IF BOATING ON OPEN WATERS.  ALSO STAY AWAY FROM LARGE
TREES AND POWER LINES THAT ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THESE STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

AEM

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