Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
334 AM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFERENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE NAM FURTHER
SOUTH THEN THE GFS. LOOKING AT HOW THE GFS HAS BEEN PERFORMING OVER
THE LAST FEW RUNS WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THIS SOLUTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
WINDS INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW THEN SPINS
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS OUR REGION A LITTLE WARMER THEN
IT HAD IT THE LAST FEW RUNS SO THE THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAS DECREASED BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER LOCATIONS. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS LOW AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WET SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF VARIANCE IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFSLR/
DGEX VERSUS THE ECMWF/OTHERS IN THE LATE PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.
THU AND FRI FEATURE WEAK TROF OVER THE REGION WITH LOW POPS THU AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FRI WITH SOME ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF TROF.
ANOTHER TROF IN WNW FLOW HEADS FOR W WY SAT PM INTO SAT NT. HAVE
KEPT GRIDS UNCHANGED WITH SCT POPS SAT PM THRU SAT NT. THIS TROF MAY
BE DEEPER THAN GFSLR SHOWS COME SAT INTO SUN AS THE 06Z DGEX IS A
BIT DEEPER NOW WITH THIS WEEKEND TROF. LEFT SOME LINGERING POPS IN
THE N ZONES SUN AM AND IN THE NE ZONES SUN PM. SEEMS TO BE SOME
AGREEMENT THAT SUN NT AND MON WILL DRY OUT WITH A QUICK RIDGE FOR
MON. WENT DRY WX FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONAL THU/FRI/SAT
WITH SOME COOLING SUN THEN WARMER MON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HRD
LONG TERM....AR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1205 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

WYZ002>007-062015-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-CODY FOOTHILLS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CODY...MEETEETSE...BASIN...GREYBULL...
LOVELL...POWELL...THERMOPOLIS...WORLAND
1205 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH THROUGH 1
PM. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
NEAR MEETEETSE AT 1150 AM.

THROUGH 1 PM...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN PARK AND WESTERN BIG HORN COUNTIES...PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL. THE STORMS MAY AFFECT
POWELL...CODY...LOVELL AND BURLINGTON.

SR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1223 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

WYZ004-006-008>011-062030-
NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASIN...GREYBULL...LOVELL...POWELL...
WORLAND...BUFFALO...KAYCEE
1223 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 417 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN WYOMING THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING

BIG HORN              JOHNSON               WASHAKIE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LOVELL...GREYBULL...BASIN...
WORLAND AND BUFFALO.

RUBIN