Heavy Snow Warning 2, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WWUS45 KREV 011054
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET IN THE LAKE TAHOE
AREA AND MONO COUNTY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS AROUND 7000 FEET.

IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE SIERRA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BE
PREPARED FOR DIFFICULT WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL
DELAYS. STAY TUNED TO UPDATED STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CAZ070-NVZ005-011200-
/O.CAN.KREV.HS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051201T1600Z/
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...EMPIRE...GERLACH
254 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS CANCELLED THE HEAVY SNOW
WARNING. 

SNOW LEVELS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY HAVE
RISEN TO 7000 FEET AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY TODAY.

$$

CAZ073-011900-
/O.UPG.KREV.WS.A.0002.051201T2100Z-051202T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KREV.WS.W.0003.051201T2100Z-051202T1800Z/
MONO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...
MAMMOTH LAKES
254 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
PST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MONO COUNTY BY
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BEGIN NEAR 8500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND DROP TO
6500 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 8000 FEET
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BELOW
7500 FEET.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOW CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE RIDGES. GUSTS OVER 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER RIDGES WITH GUSTS
TO 55 MPH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

CAZ072-NVZ002-011900-
/O.EXT.KREV.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051202T1200Z/
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...
TRUCKEE...MARKLEEVILLE...GLENBROOK...INCLINE VILLAGE
254 AM PST THU DEC 1 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY 
ABOVE 7000 FEET...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY. 

RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 8000 FEET THIS
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO 6500 FEET THIS
EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 8000 FEET. HIGHWAY PASSES
MOST AFFECTED WILL BE ECHO SUMMIT...CARSON PASS AND THE MOUNT ROSE
HIGHWAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HEAVY SNOW CAUSING AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOUNTAIN PASSES. GUSTS OVER 100 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER RIDGES WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

$$

WALLMANN/BRONG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
315 PM PST WED NOV 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS POWERFUL
STORM APPROACHES THE CA COAST. RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. DEW
POINTS REMAIN VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
IN THE TEENS AND 20S ELSEWHERE SO MOST OF THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS
ARE LIKELY VIRGA EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ADDRESSING THE SNOW POTENTIAL FIRST...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STABLE AND NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 700 MB TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...THE PRESENCE OF THIS STABLE
LAYER WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL AT LEVELS LOWER THAN INDICATED BY
MODEL DATA. SNOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS
NEAR THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP AND COULD ACCUMULATE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
IN THE TAHOE BASIN AT LAKE LEVEL BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ABOVE 7000 FEET...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
GREATER SO THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THE TAHOE
ZONE. THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS LIKELY OVERDONE ON THE ETA MODEL
FOR MONO COUNTY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FRONTAL LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER NORTH. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS MORE LIKELY THURS
AFTERNOON OVER MONO COUNTY SO THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME. IN NERN CA...SNOW LEVELS MAY BEGIN BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET
BUT SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 6000 FEET BEFORE SNOW AMOUNTS REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE AS WARM AIR MASS SHOULD BREAK
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE SIERRA DURING THE MORNING AND COULD EVEN
RISE ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE TIME SPENT IN THE WARM SECTOR IS STILL AN UNCERTAINTY
AND WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SNOW AMOUNTS. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT AREAS ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AND
COULD SEE UP TO 3 FEET BY EVENING WHILE AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED A FOOT
IN THE 7000 TO 8000 FOOT RANGE AS WELL EVEN WITH THE WARM SECTOR
PERIOD. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...A FINAL BURST OF SNOW COULD BRING A FEW QUICK INCHES TO
THE LAKE LEVEL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER
OFF IN MONO COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE ENDING TIMES FOR PRECIP ARE
SOONER THAN INDICATED BY MODEL DATA SINCE THEY TEND TO HANG ON THE
QPF TOO LONG FOR FAST MOVING COLD FRONT PASSAGES.

IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IS LIKELY IN THE
LASSEN ZONE AND IF THE ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES...EVEN RENO WOULD SEE
AN INCH OF RAIN ON THURSDAY. USUALLY THE GFS IS WETTER FOR THE WRN
NV VALLEYS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ETA ABLE TO DELINEATE A RAIN
SHADOW...SO THIS COULD SIGNIFY A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN REACHING RENO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE OVER NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL NV WITH THE LEAST PRECIP OVER MINERAL COUNTY. THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR VALLEY RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE STABLE ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW 700 MB FROM LATER
THIS EVENING THRU THURS MORNING.

WIND POTENTIAL REMAINS A CONCERN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AS
700 MB FLOW OF 70 KT IS EXPECTED THRU THE MORNING. TRANSPORTING
THIS WIND TO THE SURFACE WILL BE DIFFICULT WHEN STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED. BY THURS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXING DOWN BUT SPEEDS MAY NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA AS THE JET
CORE COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH BY THE TIME THE STEADY RAIN BREAKS UP.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL REMAIN FOR NOW
WITH MINERAL COUNTY BEING ADDED TO THE WATCH SINCE THEY WILL HAVE A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXING WITH EXPECTED RAIN SHADOWING.

FROM FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
WITH CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT OTHERWISE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COOLER. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH MOVING EAST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING DOWN SOMETIME ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE
A HARD TIME IRONING OUT THESE DETAILS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NRN ZONES ON TUESDAY. OTHER THAN
THAT...CONTINUED WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH NRN ZONES COULD BE CLOSER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
DEPENDING ON HOW FLAT THE RIDGE IS AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BENINATO

.AVIATION...
ONLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE SIERRA TODAY MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND RAIN/SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM
KTVL NWD OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED AFTER 05Z. PRECIP
WILL BE MORE SHOWERY FURTHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SURFACE WINDS 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH LIKELY ON THURSDAY
OVER TAF/TWEB ROUTES IN NV. BENINATO.

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET ZONE 2 FROM 8 PM THIS
       EVENING THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY EVENING.
      HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 1 3 AND 5 THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
       THURSDAY EVENING.
      LAKE WIND ADVISORY ZONE 4 FROM 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
       8 PM THURSDAY EVENING.

.CA...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET ZONE 72 FROM 8 PM
       TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY NIGHT.
      WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 7500 FEET ZONE 73 THURSDAY
       AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
      HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 70 AND 71 THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
       THURSDAY EVENING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
600 AM PST WED NOV 30 2005

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-011500-
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
600 AM PST WED NOV 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...WEST
CENTRAL NEVADA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC TODAY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING TOMORROW
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE SIERRA. REFER TO /WWUS45 KREV WSWREV/ FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA
INCLUDING THE GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY MINDEN AREA. REFER TO /WWUS75
KREV NPWREV/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ACCORDING TO
ESTABLISHED CRITERIA.