Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

BEST FORCING UNFOLDING QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.

TODAY...NOCTURNAL DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK. RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN GREATLY REDUCED AS MID-LEVEL
DRYING OVERSPREADS FROM THE WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VOID
OF FORCING UPSTREAM...IN DRY SLOT REGION WITH FROPA AND INITIAL
SURGE OF PVA FROM DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH. LATEST 00Z SUITE OF
SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA SUPPORT LATEST TRENDS AS WELL. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MUCH OF CWA WILL SEE VERY LITTLE COVERAGE FROM
12Z ONWARD TODAY WITH FROPA. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...TRENDING GOOD CHANCE POPS EXTREME NORTHEAST TO
SLIGHT WEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A CHALLENGE AGAIN TODAY AND SHOULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH
WESTERLY FLOW AND MID-LEVEL DRYING FAVORABLE FOR SOME SPORADIC
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MOS GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...REMOVED ALL POPS BY 23Z EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH
NE COASTAL PLAINS  03Z.  SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS
LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST. LOWERED LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT MORE QUICKLY.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND LONGWAVE VORT MAX  APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SW FLOW AT
THE SURFACE...INDUCED BY PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL AID SLIGHTLY IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE COLUMN
JUST ENOUGH THAT VORT MAX COULD PRODUCE QUICK PASSING SHOWER OR
DRIZZLE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE DRY
FOR NOW BUT CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL WITH LATER MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSVERSE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EACH WAVE WILL RESULT IN A
RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR FROM THE HIGHER LATITUDES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FEATURED WITH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z...IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS FROM THE WEST AND STALLED
BOUNDARY LIFTS TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR AND UNDER LIGHT SW FLOW. VEERING
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
MARGINAL AND WILL BE OMITTED FROM TAFS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM 23Z ONWARD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR
LONG TERM...LOCKLEAR
AVIATION...LOCKLEAR/WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-220945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH PORTIONS OF
THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. STAY TUNED TO ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1234 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     HAIL             THOMASVILLE             35.89N 80.08W
10/22/2005  1.25 INCH        DAVIDSON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

1204 AM     HAIL             2 N THOMASVILLE         35.92N 80.08W
10/22/2005  1.00 INCH        DAVIDSON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

1219 AM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              36.20N 79.68W
10/22/2005  1.00 INCH        GUILFORD           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
216 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-089-220730-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...GOLDSBORO...CLINTON
216 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH 300 AM. HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE
EXPECTED FROM ROCKY MOUNT SOUTH INTO SMITHFIELD...WILSON...
GOLDSBORO ANDVFAYETTEVILLE. UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE...
AND DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL AS SLICK ROADS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

NCZ089-220800-
SAMPSON-
254 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY THROUGH 400
AM EDT...

AT 254 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ROSEBORO...OR ABOUT 14 MILES WEST OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSEBORO...AND...
SALEMBURG...CLINTON...TURKEY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE STORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN FAYETTEVILLE.

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

NCZ078-220745-
WAYNE-
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH 345 AM
EDT...

AT 312 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY NEAR BETHEL...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF
GOLDSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT OUT OF EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY BY 345 AM.

WSS

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