Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THROUGH TONIGHT: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THAT FORMED WITHIN
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE 20-30% POPS
THROUGH MID EVENING... THEN WILL CLEAR OUT SKIES BRIEFLY BEFORE
PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP... AS SUGGESTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PERSISTENCE. FORECAST LOWS OF 69-73
REASONABLE.

SAT-MON: OVERALL PATTERN IS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
A BAGGY UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST REGION DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD... & THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES HOLDING WELL TO OUR NORTH...
KEEPING NC BENEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS & AT THE MERCY OF
HARD-TO-DETECT LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD STALL TO OUR NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WASHING OUT. OFFSHORE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS... CAUSING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT
REMAIN WEAK. IN GENERAL... SEE NO REASON TO DEPART FROM THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH SMALL (1 IN 4) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE SHOULD
SEE AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN SAT NIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO FORECAST MAX/MIN TEMPS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
PROGRESSIVELY TRIMMING HIGHS A BIT EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL
PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO REGION. PWS WATER REMAIN
AOA 2.0 AS THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH IN
THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO PASSING NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH. A
DIURNAL LOW CHANCE TREND IN POPS WILL BE FEATURED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE S/W TROUGH ACTUALLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY WILL BE JUSTIFIED
BY MID-WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL MITIGATE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL RANGES WITH LOWS 70-75.

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 00Z. DEVELOPMENT OF SE LOW-LEVEL MARINE LAYER MAY INTRODUCE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO GO ALONG WITH THE MVFR VISIBILITIES THAT HAVE
OBSERVED THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. SCATTERED THUNDER AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM/AVIATION...LOCKLEAR