Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

TONIGHT...
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS AND RESULTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS STRENGTHENS LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
100KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO OHIO
VALLEY PUSHES EAST...PLACING WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER FAVORABLE RR
ENTRANCE REGION. MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL 850 ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...ALLOWING EASTERLY FEED OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH PWS RISE ABOVE 2.0. MEANWHILE...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE CLOUD FREE AREA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXISTS
COULD SERVE AS A SECONDARY TRIGGER THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA COULD
EXTEND BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRANSLATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT...AND A CHANCE ACROSS THE EAST HALF. WEAK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING STORMS WITH CELL MERGES...THUS WILL HIGHLIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE ACTUAL SFC FRONT (DEWPOINT
DISCONTINUITY) REMAINS TO THE NORTH...850 FRONT/TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A STARK
CONTRAST...WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE NW PIEDMONT HOLDING NEAR
80...COMPARED TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN. LIKELY POPS EXPECTED ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM WET MICROBURSTS MAY BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN AREA WHERE HIGHEST INSTABILITY (SBCAPES 3500-4000
J/KG) IS FORECAST TO EXIST. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
THETA-E AXIS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY POPS CONTINUE...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL
GREATLY DIMINISHES WITH FORECAST SBCAPES DOWN TO 1000-1500
J/KG...HOWEVER CELL MERGERS WILL COULD STILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BY SUNDAY...850 FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS IT COULD POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE UKMET AND THE NAM
KEEPS THIS FEATURE JUST OFF THE COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
INLAND...SPINNING UP A VORT. MAX OVER THE AREA. PREFERRED THE
MAV MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH IF IT
VERIFIES WILL PUT THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 82.6...WHICH WILL
TIE FOR THE WARMEST MONTH EVER ON RECORD.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH PWS FORECAST TO REMAIN AOA 2.0
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...COMPARED TO 1.75 ACROSS THE WEST. DIURNAL
TREND OF CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL LIMIT EXPOSURE TO SOLAR
HEATING...THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE WITH
HIGHS OF 86 TO 91 AND LOWS 68 TO 73.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THESE STORMS MOVE INTO A TAF SITE...THEY COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. WILL INCLUDE GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN A TEMPO AT ALL
SITES...BUT EVEN HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH A SURFACE FRONT
NEAR THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST
PAST MIDNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS
FORMING AFTER 06Z. TAFS WILL HAVE MVFR VIS AND CIGS BUT IFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR
LONG TERM...LOCKLEAR
AVIATION...DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-291000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
550 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG HEATING... ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
INCREASING WINDS HIGH ALOFT... WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE... ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 2 PM AND 10
PM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

ALSO... A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM ROCKINGHAM TO ROBBINS TO HILLSBOROUGH TO ROXBORO.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 105 TO 109
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY... THEN SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK... AS THE SURFACE FRONT PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1031 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E RALEIGH             35.81N 78.55W
07/28/2005                   WAKE               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON US 64 EAST AND MILBURNIE ROAD NEAR
            THE NEUSE RIVER.

&&

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1043 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ083>085-290345-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
1043 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
RICHMOND...ANSON AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM EDT...

AT 1043 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ANSON...RICHMOND AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES
WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
WHITE STORE
WADESBORO
ROCKINGHAM
LAUREL HILL

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. SOME
DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE.

RA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S GARNER              35.65N 78.63W
07/28/2005  60 MPH           WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A 60 MPH GUST AT TEN-TEN AND
            HOLLAND CHURCH RD AT 1035 PM AS GUST FRONT PASSED. A GUST
            OF 57 WAS MEASURED AT 1037 PM.

&&

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

NCZ086-088-290400-
HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL HOKE COUNTY WILL BE
SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY BY 1115 PM. HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING MAY BE
EXPECTED OVER FORT BRAGG...SPRING LAKE AND FAYETTEVILLE THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY
CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER AND ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

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