Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 232111
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2005

COC071-232121-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0165.000000T0000Z-050823T2145Z/
LAS ANIMAS CO-
311 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELED...

AT 309 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THAT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LIGHTNING...THE WEATHER HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AND NO
LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3710 10363 3702 10343 3748 10306 3762 10308
      3761 10334

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
229 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2005

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60KT JET CORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS
NW COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH LF AND RR QUAD OF
JET...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTS ATTM. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR KEEPING MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ATTM.
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS...ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS SOMEWHAT TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH
QC IMPLIED ASCENT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND
INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING RATHER
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
SE PLAINS...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING RATHER HEALTHY MID
LEVEL CAP IN PLACE...WITH CINS BETWEEN 100-200J/KG AS WELL. AT
ANY RATE...WITH SOME LIFT WITH PASSING WAVE...WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH
MT VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DECREASING THEREAFTER
WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE. WITH LOADED GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG WITH ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF
SUN TIME TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
LIFT FROM PASSING WAVE...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR...MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. WITH BULK SHEARS AROUND 30-40KTS...DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND
1500J/KG AND THE BULK OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE (-10C TO
-20C)...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH
AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...STORMS WILL BE MOVING TODAY WITH FLASH FLOODING
THREAT LOW...HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY...SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH WARMER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS...WITH MVFR
AND PATCHY IFR STRATUS LIKELY FROM MCS OUTFLOW. STILL LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHER TIER ZONES...WHERE MODELS INDICATING
SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR JET STREAK EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

I DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST IN
WHICH I INHERITED. MAIN CHANGES WERE PRIMARILY TO FINE TUNE THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME PERIODS.

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE THU-SAT TIME PERIODS. MAIN
SHORT WAVE MOVING IN ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE
OUR WX TOO SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT IF THIS FEATURE DROPS A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH OR IF THE SFC HIGH IS A BIT STRONGER...THEN A FRONT MAY PUSH
DOWN HERE A BIT MORE AGRESSIVELY AND THIS MAY IN TURN TAPER TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREEES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE
OUR CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD./HODANISH

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2005

COZ058>089-093>099-241300-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
1146 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH
IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL TO AROUND ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 200 PM OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.