Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-100600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 PM MST TUE AUG 9 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO A SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE MOIST...MONSOONAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ONGOING
OVER MOST ZONES AS OF 3 PM. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS
COURTESY OF A BACKBUILDING MCS CURRENTLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO/MOHAVE
COUNTY...AND QUICKLY BUILDING INTO LA PAZ AND ERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY.
OTHER CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING OVER SRN GILA COUNTY...AND ALONG
THE MARICOPA/YAVALPAI COUNTY BORDER.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ELECTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING
DUE TO PRESENT ACTIVITY.  FOR MOST ZONES...OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT OVER THE
PHOENIX METRO AREA WHERE OUTLFLOW COLLISIONS HAVE GENERATED NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.  AREAL COVERAGE IN METRO WILL LIKELY BE AT OF
ABOVE 60 PERCENT. PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS CURRENT TSTMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED AS OF 3 PM. DUE
TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG....ISOLATED WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR TOMORROW AS THE 300-250MB UPPER
HIGH WOBBLES OVER WESTERN NM. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTMAX (AND
OMEGA BULLSEYE) AND TAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AS SUCH THE
MAV GUIDANCE FOR KPHX SHOWS A POP OF 65 AT 00Z ON 11 AUG...WITH MET
GUIDANCE OF 36 AT THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BUY INTO THIS
SOLUTION COMPLETELY...BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCE TYPE POPS IN MOST
AREAS FOR TOMORROW EVENING.

FURTHER IN THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE NORTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST ON LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. DIFFLUENT FLOW COMBINED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT JET AT
300MB COULD LEAD TO SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND HENCE SOME TSTM
ENHANCEMENT.  OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS AT THIS TIME BUT DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR DEEP
CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
KPHX/KIWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  HEAVY RAINFALL...LOW
VISIBILITY AOB 2SM...LOW CIGS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AT
KYUM/KBLH/KIPL. SEE TAFS
PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH...LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

FOWLE

ZCZC PHXHWOPSR ALL
TTAA00 KPSR DDHHMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST TUE AUG 9 2005

AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031>033-100700-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-IMPERIAL COUNTY-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
545 AM MST (545 AM PDT) TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS AND FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LOWER
DESERTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER-
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT...AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...

AZZ024-CAZ030-100700-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK/JTNP/-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
545 AM MST (600 AM PDT) TUE AUG 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER-
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...

HV