Freeze Warning 2, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS75 KPSR 061030
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE DEC 6 2005

AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031>033-061600-
/O.CON.KPSR.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051206T1600Z/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...BOUSE...
QUARTZSITE...SALOME...LAKE PLEASANT...MORRISTOWN...NEW RIVER...
TONOPAH...BUCKEYE...WICKENBURG...CAREFREE...CAVE CREEK...
CHANDLER...FOUNTAIN HILLS...GILBERT...GLENDALE...MESA...PEORIA...
PHOENIX...SCOTTSDALE...SUN CITY...TEMPE...SAN LUIS...SOMERTON...
YUMA...FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...DATELAND...TACNA...WELLTON...
GILA BEND...APACHE JUNCTION...CASA GRANDE...COOLIDGE...FLORENCE...
BLYTHE...CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER...EAGLE MTN...MIDLAND...
BRAWLEY...CALEXICO...EL CENTRO...GLAMIS...IMPERIAL...
AND THE SALTON SEA
230 AM PST TUE DEC 6 2005 /330 AM MST TUE DEC 6 2005/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST /8 AM PST/
THIS MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST /8 AM PST/ THIS
MORNING. 

LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY IS ALLOWING FOR
SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE LARGER COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING PHOENIX SKY HARBOR
AIRPORT...WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...RURAL DESERT REGIONS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...EVEN INTO THE 20S FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS...WILL BE A REPEAT OF
FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY.
THESE CONDITIONS MAY DESTROY OR DAMAGE CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

$$

000 
WWUS75 KPSR 061611
NPWPSR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
911 AM MST TUE DEC 6 2005


AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031>033-061715-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-051206T1600Z/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...BOUSE...
QUARTZSITE...SALOME...LAKE PLEASANT...MORRISTOWN...NEW RIVER...
TONOPAH...BUCKEYE...WICKENBURG...CAREFREE...CAVE CREEK...
CHANDLER...FOUNTAIN HILLS...GILBERT...GLENDALE...MESA...PEORIA...
PHOENIX...SCOTTSDALE...SUN CITY...TEMPE...SAN LUIS...SOMERTON...
YUMA...FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...DATELAND...TACNA...WELLTON...
GILA BEND...APACHE JUNCTION...CASA GRANDE...COOLIDGE...FLORENCE...
BLYTHE...CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER...EAGLE MTN...MIDLAND...
BRAWLEY...CALEXICO...EL CENTRO...GLAMIS...IMPERIAL...
AND THE SALTON SEA
811 AM PST TUE DEC 6 2005 /911 AM MST TUE DEC 6 2005/

...FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE FREEZE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 9 AM
MST (8 AM PST). PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING MARK. 

$$

FOWLE

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-060600-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
259 PM MST MON DEC 05 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES...CONTINUES A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. VERY COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOW DESERTS
DIPPING INTO THE FREEZE RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING...SHD REPEAT TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IF THE WINDS STAY LOW. WILL GO WITH A
FREEZE WARNING IN THE OUTLYING AREAS...WHERE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ASSIST RAD COOLING. SOMEWHAT TRICKY MIN TEMP
FCST...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE LOW DESERTS WILL POKE UP
INTO WARMER AIR. WE SHD SEE A REPEAT OF MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S FROM
WICKENBURG...TO CASA GRANDE...GILA BEND TO NORTH OF YUMA...AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE RIVER IN IMPERIAL AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. OUTLYING AREAS...AWAY FROM COMMUNITIES ARE MOST
VULNERABLE. THEN...LATER ON WEDNESDAY A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT
SWINGS SOUTHWARD ACRS THE REGION...NO MSTR FOR US...BUT IT CONTINUES
THE COOL DRY FLOW INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH REGARDS TO THE
CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAC NW ON THURS...AND THEN
GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD.  THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST UNSTABLE MODEL WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LOW...WITH
EACH NEW MODEL SOLUTION VASTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE OVERALL
TRACK...SPEED...AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF)
HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND BASICALLY TAKES THE CENTER OF THE
LOW FROM NEAR KSFO ON 12Z FRI TO NEAR KLAS ON 12Z SAT...THEN QUICKLY
OPENS IT UP OVER NEW MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY.  THE 12Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE 12Z ECMWF EXCEPT A TOUCH SLOWER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  THE
12Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS GET A BIT NOISY BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF.

ALL IN ALL...HAVE BASICALLY DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...DUE TO ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  AS
SUCH...STILL MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EVEN
WITH THE TRACK OF THE FURTHER WEST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
ECMWF STILL DOES NOT SHOW ANY KIND OF A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...SO
MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED OVER OUR AREA...WITH ANY CLOUDINESS
THE MID AND HI LEVEL VARIETY.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RATHER
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW. CURRENT
FORECAST DEPICTS TEMPS COOLING BY A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS THE
LOW APPROACHES...WITH WARMER TEMPS ON SUN/MON AS A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON HOW MUCH
WIND IT WILL GENERATE...HOWEVER...BELIEVE AN INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE IS JUSTIFIED. WILL TREND WINDS CLOSE TO NAM GUIDANCE...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN MAV MOS. IN BOTH CASES...VERY LOW RH IS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...AND 20FT WINDS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IF TIGHTER GRADIENTS
APPEAR ON FOLLOWING RUNS...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FIRE WX WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE
TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT LOW DESERTS IN MARICOPA...LA
PAZ...YUMA...AND NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTIES. ZONES 020>023-025>028.

CA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT LOW DESERTS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CA...EASTERN RIVERSIDE AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES. ZONES CAZ031>032.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

RUNYAN/FOWLE/SIPPLE