Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-041045-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST MON JAN 3 2005

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE
THE RULE...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY NIGHT. A LULL IN THE INCLEMENT
WEATHER IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD
FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND FRIDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MASSIVE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE JUST OFF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS EVENING (03Z). AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED INTO MAINLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PART OF AZ FROM OLD MEXICO. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW HAVE ENHANCED RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THROUGH 03Z. THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN PARTS OF
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST VALLEYS.  1.3
INCHES HAVE ALSO FALLEN IN THE GLOBE MIAMI AREA IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.

ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN AZ AT 03Z...
WITH ANOTHER POISED TO ROTATE INTO SOUTHWEST AZ TOWARD MORNING
(AROUND 10Z). THEREFORE DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND OR PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH TUE EVENING.

TUESDAY MORNING (12Z) THE CUTOFF OFF LOW ROTATES INLAND WITH A
110-120 KNOT JET MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA INTO SOUTHEAST AZ.
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ (INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA)COMES
UNDER THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH CENTRAL AZ JUST AFTER 12Z. DYNAMICS ALONG WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUE EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START TO FALL DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE...TO NEAR 5000 FT IN CENTRAL AZ AND 4000 FEET SOUTHEAST CA. SNOW
LEVELS FALL EVEN LOWER TUE NIGHT IN CENTRAL AZ WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS POSTED ABOVE 4500 FEET.

MORE STABLE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ WED AND THU FOR A BREAK IN THE WEATHER.

CURRENT FORECASTS WHICH INCLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT/EARLY
TUE AND WINTER STORM WATCH TUE NIGHT LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LA PAZ...MARICOPA...NORTHWEST AND
     NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL...YUMA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES...ZONES
     20 THRU 28...TONIGHT.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LA PAZ...MARICOPA...NORTHWEST AND
     NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES...ZONES
     21...22...23...24...27...28...TUESDAY.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AZ ZONE 24 ABOVE 4500 FEET TUESDAY
     NIGHT.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE
     COUNTIES...ZONES 30 THRU 33...TONIGHT.

&&

VASQUEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
609 AM MST MON JAN 3 2005

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-040100-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK/JTNP/-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
609 AM MST (509 AM PST) MON JAN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. BE ALERT FOR SLICK ROADS...DRIVE SLOWER THAN
USUAL...LEAVE EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE VEHICLE AHEAD
OF YOU...AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA PAZ...MARICOPA...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT PHXFFAPSR...WMO HEADER

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. BE ALERT FOR SLICK ROADS...DRIVE
SLOWER THAN USUAL...LEAVE EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN YOUR VEHICLE AND THE
VEHICLE AHEAD OF YOU...AND STAY AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA PAZ...MARICOPA...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PINAL...AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE
FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT PHXFFAPSR...WMO HEADER WGUS65 KPSR...FFAPSR.

PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN A SUDDEN REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AGAIN BY FRIDAY.

.INSTRUCTIONS TO SPOTTERS...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ELLIS