Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
230 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS UPPER TROF LINGERS ALONG PACIFIC
COAST.  CONVECTION BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTH
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY SPARSE ACROSS SE IDAHO THUS FAR BUT
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIDING NORTHWARD AND COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY KEPT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS IN ZONES WITH SCATTERED
IN EASTERN ZONES AND ISOLATED IN WEST.  THINK STRONG WINDS AGAIN
MAIN THREAT IN THIS PATTERN WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS.  KEPT GUSTY
WIND WORDING WITH TSTMS AS WELL.  TAPERED DOWN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS.  NORTHERN PART OF TROF PASSES TO NORTH TONIGHT
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY AND NAM TENDS TO DRY OUT
QUITE A BIT.  STILL UNSTABLE MAINLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF ZONES
SO KEPT ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN GRIDS FOR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  DRY ELSEWHERE.  MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FRIDAY
WITH GFS DRY AND NAM QUITE WET FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIVES THROUGH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW WITH MUCH MORE INSTABILITY.  WENT IN
BETWEEN AND RE-INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TROF TO WEST SATURDAY WITH STRONG SW FLOW
CONTINUING WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING AND PUT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN.  TROFFY PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GFS INDICATING
THE H5 TROF PASSES ON MONDAY NIGHT.  TOO EARLY TO CHANGE WHAT WE
HAVE IN SUNDAY THROUGH WED TIME FRAME WITH GENERAL MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION DAILY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH SW
FLOW EARLY IN PERIOD AND BACK TO SEASONABLE AFTER TROF PASSAGE NEXT
WEEK.
GK
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND 6000 FT CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 18
HOURS. RWW

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
600 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-231200-
LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
600 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
REPORTS.  THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER
HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
541 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAKLEY                  42.24N 113.88W
06/22/2005  50 MPH           CASSIA             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50-60MPH WINDS AT THE OAKLAND CANAL COMPANY.

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N RUPERT              42.65N 113.67W
06/22/2005  60 MPH           MINIDOKA           ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST WITH HEAVY RAIN.

0502 PM     HAIL             3 N BURLEY              42.58N 113.79W
06/22/2005  0.25 INCH        MINIDOKA           ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN SHOWER.

0504 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURLEY                  42.54N 113.79W
06/22/2005  60 MPH           CASSIA             ID   ASOS

            WINDSPEED OF 60 MPH RECORDED AT THE BURLEY AIRPORT.

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W RUPERT              42.62N 113.71W
06/22/2005  60 MPH           MINIDOKA           ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST.

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W MINIDOKA            42.75N 113.55W
06/22/2005  60 MPH           MINIDOKA           ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
            DUST.

&&

DHARMON