Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
330 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE NEAR 135W 40N THIS MORNING
PROJECTED BY MODELS INTO WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH MID NIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO
HAVE NOSE OF H3 JET ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF STATE. MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET BUT VERY GOOD
OROGRAPHICS WITH SOUTH WEST H7 FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
VERTICAL SHEAR QUITE RESPECTABLE AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LIS RUN MINUS 3 TO MINUS 5 WITH CAPE UP AROUND
1100 J/KG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT OAKLEY TO DRIGGS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS BACKED OFF BUT STILL AROUND .75 INCH THIS EVENING.
SOUNDING PROFILE IS ALSO TENDING TOWARDS INVERTED V. STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE UP AROUND 25 TO 30KTS SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NOT THE BIG
ISSUE. HOWEVER...SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP IN THE BIG AND
LITTLE WOOD RIVER AREA WHERE RIVERS ALREADY AT FLOOD STAGE COULD BE
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO AGGRAVATE RUN OFF. WINDEX VALUES AROUND 47
IN SUPPORT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A LITTLE SHORT
OF SEVERE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED
STRONG CELLS. INSTABILITY AND SHORT WAVE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT THEN DECREASE RAPIDLY. LAST BUT NOT LEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE IN THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. LOCAL
STUDY SUGGESTS LESS THAN WIND ADVISORY LEVEL.

ON SATURDAY JET STREAM SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BUT STILL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY AGAIN. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. GFS DOES BRING TRAILING
SOUTHERN END OF COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT BUT STILL PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE AROUND. WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO BOIFLWPIH AND BOIFLSPIH
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-211200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
300 PM MDT FRI MAY 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH. ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL WILL ADD TO RUN OFF ON LOCAL RIVERS AND
STREAMS. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LITTLE WOOD RIVER NEAR
CAREY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. RISING
TEMPERATURES WILL BOOST RUNOFF ACROSS THE REGION.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
REPORTS.  THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER
HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY
(ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO