Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

000 
WGUS75 KPIH 170044
FFSPIH
IDC031-170200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
640 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR CASSIA
COUNTY...

AT 633 PM MDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF ALBION WHERE SEVERAL HOMES HAVE
BASEMENT FLOODING.

MANY LOCATIONS IN CASSIA COUNTY HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES 
OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR 
WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND AREAS WHERE POOR 
DRAINAGE EXITS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO IDAHOME...
HEGLAR...DECLO AND ALBION.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4204 11421 4203 11304 4256 11303 4257 11338
      4245 11403

$$

RWW

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000 
WGUS75 KPIH 170158
FFSPIH
IDC031-170200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
755 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT FOR 
CASSIA COUNTY...

AT 755 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN 
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4204 11421 4203 11304 4256 11303 4257 11338
      4245 11403

$$

RWW

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO
205 PM DT MON MAY 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PIH CWA.  PWS ON AREA
SOUNDINGS STILL 0.6 TO 0.8 OF AN INCH.  MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS 330K
SFC THETA-E MAX CENTERED OVER POWER COUNTY WITH HIGHEST DBZS
OCCURRING OVER ZONES 18/19 ALONG PERIPHERY.  STORM MOTION ON VWP AND
PROFILERS 25 TO 30 KNOTS KEEPING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL MINIMAL BUT
COULD SEE SOME PROBLEMS LATER TONIGHT WITH ECHO ENTRAINMENT.  AT
18Z...SFC COLD FRONT ALIGNED FROM LLJ TO BOI WITH 995 MB SFC LOW
NEAR EKO AND LIGHTNING MAXES FROM EKO TO TPH.  BASED ON THIS
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY AND QPF DISTRIBUTIONS PAST 6
HOURS...PREFERRED THE GFS AND MM5-GFS SOLUTIONS.

PEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES/LIS OCCUR NEAR 00Z TUE OVER AREA AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT.  LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40
KNITS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 00Z.  POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE CELLS WITH POSSIBLE ROTATION WITH INCREASING 0-2 KM SHEAR OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THUS WILL WATCH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF CWA FOR SEVERE THREAT GIVEN PRESENCE OF BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY SNAKE VALLEY BY 06Z TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG
(+15 TO +20) MID-LEVEL DPVA.  THUS WILL CARRY HIGH POPS WITH MENTION
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS/TS (THROUGH 03Z) AND SMALL HAIL WITH WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 9K FEET FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE.  U/L TROUGH
EJECTS THROUGH THE PIH CWA DURING 12Z TUE WITH FLOW BACKING TO W/NW
BY TUE AFTERNOON.  THIS GIVES WAY TO A BROAD U/L RIDGE FOR TUE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWERS FOR TUE NIGHT AND
WED.

EXTENDED...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z GFS.  U/L LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DEEPEN WHILE SUBTROPICAL JET PIVOTS TO THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM
AND MOVES INLAND.  THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE BROAD U/L RIDGE NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS DIGS INTO
SOUTH US.  THUS EXPECT PIH CWA TO BE JUST WEST OF THE SHARPENING U/L
RIDGE AXIS WITH SERIES OF WAVES TO CROSS AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BASE
OF THE U/L TROUGH SWINGS INLAND BY LATE FRI.  HENCE THU-FRI WILL BE
THE DRIER DAYS WHILE SAT-MON WILL BE WETTER AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN.

04

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
500 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-171200-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
500 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO

.DAY ONE...
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. HALF INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN LOCALLY.
HEAVIEST RAIN FALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BURLEY
TO ISLAND PARK. AREA RIVERS WILL SEE INCREASED FLOWS BUT HAVE A WAYS
TO GO BEFORE ANY MAIN STEM FLOODING CAN DEVELOP. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO CAUSE FLOODING OF CITY STREETS THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP
DAMAGING WINDS IN AN AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BURLEY TO SWAN
VALLEY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS DECREASING FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE ASK ALL TRAINED SPOTTERS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE ALL HAIL...WIND...AND HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW
REPORTS.  THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CALLED INTO THE LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER
HOTLINE...OR OTHER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
420 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2005

IDZ017>025-031-032-170400-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
420 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
282 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IDAHO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY IDAHO

CASSIA

IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IDAHO

BANNOCK        BINGHAM       BONNEVILLE      JEFFERSON

MADISON        POWER

IN THE EASTERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS

BEAR LAKE      CARIBOU       FRANKLIN

FREMONT        ONEIDA        TETON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...
BURLEY...RUPERT...POCATELLO...BLACKFOOT...
IDAHO FALLS...RIGBY...REXBURG...AMERICAN FALLS...
MONTPELIER...SODA SPRINGS...PRESTON...
ST ANTHONY...MALAD...DRIGGS

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