Special Marine Warning 55, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NY STATE TO
CENTRAL PA AT 17Z...APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM ELMIRA NY TO
STATE COLLEGE PA...WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z
WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING. CAPPING INVERSION NEAR H65 WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING CAPE TO INCREASE TO 500 TO
100 J/KG. LF QUAD OF THE H25 JET WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NJ BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING. JET DYNAMICS AND
SFC COLD FRONT WITH COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z. H5 SHORTWAVE AXIS
WILL TRAIL THE SFC FRONT...AND KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH 06Z NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
COLD CORE OF AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z AND 21Z. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATES LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE BETWEEN 100 AND 200 J/KG...WITH INSTABILITY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM ILG TO PHL TO TTN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LINE...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS. H85 TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 C...AND
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. UPPER LOW RETREATS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY...WHILE A SHORTWAVE SPLITS AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW
CENTER AND SHEARS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
SHORTWAVE AXIS AND WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE DRIFTS FROM EASTERN PA TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. PW VALUES STILL NEAR ONE INCH
SATURDAY...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK DYNAMICS. SFC HIGH SPANNING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE A DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY WITH H85 TEMPERATURES ONLY INCREASING
MARGINALLY. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 80 IN A FEW SPOTS SUNDAY...BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S. VERY LARGE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATING GRADUALLY INTO THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z-17/1800Z...
SCT TSRA ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HV TRIED TO
TIME CURRENT CELLS INTO THE ILG/PHL TERMINAL AREAS AND HANDLE THE
REST WITH TEMPO GROUPS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. AS CDFNT
PASSES...WNDS INCREASE FOR A FEW HRS BUT LTL CHG IN WIND DIRECTION.
HV PLAYED TOMORROW ON THE OPTIMISTIC BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD AIR
ALOFT...STRATOCU DECK MAY BE MORE THAN CURRENT FCST INDICATES.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SW-W WINDS OVER
THE BAY. CDFNT THIS EVE WL TAKE CARE OF ANY CURRENT SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. BRIEF GUSTS AS CDFNT PASSES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
BLO 20KT. SEAS GENERALLY UNDER CONTROL BUT WNA SHOWS A FAIRLY ROBUST
SWELL APCHG MON/TUE. HV PLAYED THIS DOWN FOR NOW BUT BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...MANNING
MARINE...MANNING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1140 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-
012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-170900-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNES MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
1140 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND
NEW JERSEY...EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-161815-
NEW CASTLE DE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-
CECIL MD-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES MD-TALBOT MD-CAROLINE MD-SUSSEX NJ-
WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MERCER NJ-SALEM NJ-
GLOUCESTER NJ-CAMDEN NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-ATLANTIC NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-CARBON PA-MONROE PA-BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-
NORTHAMPTON PA-CHESTER PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-DELAWARE PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES EASTWARD. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...AND WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG. A
FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PHILADELPHIA...TRENTON...WILMINGTON CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...
REACHING THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

MANNING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-162215-
NEW CASTLE DE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-
CECIL MD-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES MD-TALBOT MD-CAROLINE MD-SUSSEX NJ-
WARREN NJ-MORRIS NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MERCER NJ-SALEM NJ-
GLOUCESTER NJ-CAMDEN NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
CUMBERLAND NJ-ATLANTIC NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-CARBON PA-MONROE PA-BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-
NORTHAMPTON PA-CHESTER PA-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-DELAWARE PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES EASTWARD. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...AND WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG. A
FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
PHILADELPHIA...TRENTON...WILMINGTON CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...
REACHING THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

MANNING