Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 AM PST THU DEC 29 2005

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE COAST. IR AND VISUAL SATELLITES INDICATE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE CASCADES EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST OREGON
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ALL THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST...BUT WILL UPDATE BY NOON TO
CHANGE WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE CASCADES AFTER MIDNIGHT DYNAMICS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES. THIS WILL TRAP COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION MAINLY A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 1000 FEET...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. IN THE CITY OF YAKIMA (AROUND 1000 FEET) THE HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT WILL ALSO AID IN MELTING...SO EXPECT ACCUMULATION TO REMAIN
BELOW 4 INCHES IN THE CITY...WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AS THE
ELEVATION INCREASES IN THE UPPER VALLEY OUTSIDE THE CITY. SNOW
LEVELS IN THE REST OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON WILL
BE 3000-4000 FEET WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW OR RAIN
SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.  COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MOSTLY VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
START DETERIORATING DURING THE EVENING AS THE LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. AFTER 09Z...ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND TWEB
ROUTES CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS PROBABLE AT KRDM...KYKM...THE NORTHERN PART
OF TWEB ROUTE 355 AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TWEB 366 AND 368 WITH
RAIN FALLING ELSEWHERE. KYKM AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF TWEB
ROUTE 355 MAY REACH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY. PERRY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 AM PST THU DEC 29 2005)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING ACROSS THE INNER
MOUNTAIN WEST...AND ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSING NORTHEAST OREGON/EXTREME
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW.
WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS THIS MORNING FOR THIS ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE A
RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
UPSLOPE SHWRS ACROSS THE EASTERN OREGON MTNS.

THE PATTERN TURNS MUCH MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE TONIGHT...CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SIGNIFICANT...WITH
MULTIPLE 100 KT JET MAXIMUMS...ALONG WITH A RATHER SLOW MOVING
SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALL LOCATIONS RECEIVING SOME
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...COOLER AIR WILL BECOME TRAPPED...AND WITH THE
COLD TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS APPROACHING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. THUS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS WELL AS THE YAKIMA AND
KITTITAS VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WA CASCADE EAST
SLOPES...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO ACROSS THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND THE
YAKIMA VALLEY ABOVE 1000 FEET. THE LOWER YAKIMA VALLEY WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY/WARNING  ACCUMULATIONS AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN A BIT TOO WARM...BUT SOME SNOW IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON FRIDAY...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY...AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE BLUE MTN
FOOTHILLS RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE A BIT ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN W/SW FLOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED...WET AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN RECENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL STORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH THE FIRST ONE BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING ON
MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD ON THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO RECEIVE MAINLY SNOW AT NIGHT AND ONLY
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TIME. IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE BASIN...AND THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS...PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN WITH A POSSIBLE MIX AT
NIGHT. IN THE VALLEYS NORTH AND WEST OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN PRECIP
COULD FALL AS SNOW. WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORECAST LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIP THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA IN THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE WASHINGTON EAST SLOPES WITH
EACH STORM. NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CAN BE SEEN IN THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS SO THE PROGRESSIVE AND MILD WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE RESULTING IN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR WAZ501.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR WAZ502.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR WAZ026-WAZ027.

&&

TI:GYG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
76/83/83

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