Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

.SHORT TERM
CURRENTLY WARM FRONT STILL ABOUT WERN NY-FKL-BTP-MGW. CLOUD DECK
WHICH HINDERED HEATING THROUGH THIS MORNING DOES SHOW EROSION
ESPECIALLY OH. NEWEST NAM RUN DOES PUSH SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS
NORTHWARD OF CWA TOWARD 00Z INCLUDING BEST NORMALIZED 0-3KM SHEAR.
STILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS, INSTABILITY AXIS, AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS CWA AS WELL AS HELICITY AXIS BY 00Z
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FIELDS WERN NY. ALOFT APPEARS H5 SYSTEM DOES
OPEN...HOWEVER BETTER WIND FIELD MAY PROPAGATE TO EAST SIDE H8 LOW
THIS EVENING (NORTH OF AREA) AS WELL AS BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FIELD.

ONCE LOW DECK ERODES...EXPECT SOME DESTABILIZATION. WILL CONTINUE
TSRA AND MENTION SEVERE. ACTUALLY APPEARS MIDLEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF THE MOTHER-LOAD AND PATTERN CHANGING SYSTEM ON SAT.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...BUT THINKING IS MAGNITUDE AND
COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFT AND AND
IF BETTER DYNAMICS SLIDE NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CWA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
EARLY TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFTOVER SHOWERS RIDGES AND
MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING. LARGE DRY AND
COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN IN CONTROL THOUGH MUCH OF WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BASE OF UPPER TROF AND SHRTWV MOVE ACROSS
MONDAY BUT STILL EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS NRN CWA. AS
SURFACE HIGH EASES EAST NEXT FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATER
FRIDAY AND ADDED CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT STILL LYING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. CEILING TOUGH TO RISE
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PA BUT HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
OH. EXPECT ALL CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION BEGINNING AFT 20Z, BUT MORE LIKELY 21Z TO
02Z. MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING IN OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED OUT CLDS
AFTER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER (ABOUT 06Z). AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY
TRADITIONAL TERMINALS 08 TO 12Z....THEN CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN GO VFR
TOWARD END OF PERIOD WITH NEXT ROUND OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-201315-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-WETZEL-
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURNABCE
WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE STORMS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGNG WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MDZ001-WVZ021>023-041-201315-
GARRETT-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
911 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURNABCE
WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE STORMS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGNG WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
654 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

PAZ008-009-200000-
FOREST PA-VENANGO PA-
654 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
VENANGO AND FOREST...

AT 653 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEILLTOWN...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST HICKORY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN HAVE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO OCCUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BALLTOWN...KELLETTVILLE...LYNCH...WEST HICKORY...BLUE JAY...
  BROOKSTON...BYROMTOWN...DUNRING...EAST HICKORY...ENDEAVOR...
  HASTINGS...MAYBURG...MINISTER...NEILLTOWN...PIGEON...PORKEY...
  QUEEN...SHEFFIELD JUNCTION...TRUEMANS...TRUNKEYVILLE...WHIG HILL
  AND YELLOW HAMMER

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.