Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
MADE UPDATE PER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687 TIL 11 PM. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING TO BE ISOLATED AS THEY DEVELOP
ALONG INTERSECTIONS OF CLOUD STREETS AND OTHER MICROSCALE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 221 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005)

AVIATION...

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY NEEDED TO KICK OFF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GENERAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR WITH MARGINAL HAZE.  ISOLD CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS
WILL BE MVFR OR WORSE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.  UNTIL THEN THE AIR WILL BE HOT
AND HUMID.  THIS WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...FNT FINALLY CLEARS
THE FA WED EVE...BUT MODELS INDICATE THERMAL MOISTURE GRADIENT
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FA...THEN BEGINS TO RETURN NWD AS A WARM
FNT THU. ADJUSTED DEW POINTS UPWARD A BIT ON THU...AND INTRODUCED
LOW POPS FOR TSTMS THU AFTN. IF DGEX AND GFS CORRECT...THE FA WILL
SEE INCREASING CHCS FOR AFTN AND EVE TSTMS AS TIME GOES BY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 UNTIL 8
     PM TUESDAY.
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-
     069 UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
PA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
     029>032 UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR PAZ013-014-020>022-029>032 UNTIL 8 PM
     TUESDAY.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-022 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY.
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR WVZ001>004 UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-270901-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

VERY UNSTABLE HOT...HUMID AIR IS STILL SITUATED OVER THE AREA.  THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE VERY STRONG AND COULD
APPROACH THE SEVERE CATEGORIES OF PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-270030-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
222 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAY
QUICKLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.  THESE STORMS MAY FORM INTO SHORT LINES AND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH STORMS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ADDED TO THE THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

THOSE PLANNING OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES GO TO A SAFE PLACE IMMEDIATELY AS LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIMERSBURG              41.04N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CLARION            PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN MADISON TOWNSHIP.

&&

TP